The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs, a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs,a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

Informed maintenance for next generation reusable launch systems

Perhaps the most substantial single obstacle to progress of space exploration and utilization of space for human benefit is the safety & reliability and the inherent cost of launching to, and returning from, space. The primary influence in the high costs of current launch systems (the same is true for commercial and military aircraft and most other reusable systems) is the operations, maintenance and infrastructure portion of the program's total life cycle costs. Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) maintenance and design have traditionally been two separate engineering disciplines with often conflicting objectives - maximizing ease of maintenance versus optimizing performance, size and cost. Testability analysis, an element of Informed Maintenance (IM), has been an ad hoc, manual effort, in which maintenance engineers attempt to identify an efficient method of troubleshooting for the given product, with little or no control over product design. Therefore, testability deficiencies in the design cannot be rectified. It is now widely recognized that IM must be engineered into the product at the design stage itself, so that an optimal compromise is achieved between system maintainability and performance.The elements of IM include testability analysis, diagnostics/prognostics, automated maintenance scheduling, automated logistics coordination, paperless documentation and data mining. IM derives its heritage from complimentary NASA science, space and aeronautic enterprises such as the on-board autonomous Remote Agent Architecture recently flown on NASA's Deep Space 1 Probe as well as commercial industries that employ quick turnaround operations. Commercial technologies and processes supporting NASA's IM initiatives include condition based maintenance technologies from Boeing's Commercial 777 Aircraft and Lockheed-Martin's F-22 Fighter, automotive computer diagnostics and autonomous controllers that enable 100,000 mile maintenance free operations, and locomotive monitoring system software.This paper will summarize NASA's long-term strategy, development, and implementation plans for Informed Maintenance for next generation RLVs. This will be done through a convergence into a single IM vision the work being performed throughout NASA, industry and academia. Additionally, a current status of IM development throughout NASA programs such as the Space Shuttle, X-33, X-34 and X-37 will be provided and will conclude with an overview of near-term work that is being initiated in FY00 to support NASA's 2^nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program.     

The future of space medicine.

In November 2000, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and its partners in the International Space Station (ISS) ushered in a new era of space flight: permanent human presence in low-Earth orbit. As the culmination of the last four decades of human space flight activities. the ISS focuses our attention on what we have learned to date. and what still must be learned before we can embark on future exploration endeavors. Space medicine has been a primary part of our past success in human space flight, and will continue to play a critical role in future ventures. To prepare for the day when crews may leave low-Earth orbit for long-duration exploratory missions, space medicine practitioners must develop a thorough understanding of the effects of microgravity on the human body, as well as ways to limit or prevent them. In order to gain a complete understanding and create the tools and technologies needed to enable successful exploration. space medicine will become even more of a highly collaborative discipline. Future missions will require the partnership of physicians, biomedical scientists, engineers, and mission planners. This paper will examine the future of space medicine as it relates to human space exploration: what is necessary to keep a crew alive in space, how we do it today, how we will accomplish this in the future, and how the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to achieve future goals.     

The private solution to the space transportation crisis

Confused and short-sighted decisions dominated by political expediency have been made about US space policy in the past 30 years. Overly large and ambitious systems have been chosen, resulting in today's crisis in space transportation. The history of commercial aircraft development offers an alternative example of producing in a range of sizes and capabilities for a wide variety of users, and shows that the space transport industry could benefit from applying the decision-making processes used in private enterprise. The authors examine strategies for privatization of space transportation and conclude that policy support for the commercial launch industry must be continued. NASA must be reoriented towards its basic research function, and more government services should be bought from the private sector.     

Future spacelift projection

In 1996 the NASA Advisory Council asked for a comprehensive look at future launch projections out to the year 2030 and beyond. In response to this request NASA sponsored a study at The Aerospace Corporation to develop long-range space transportation models for future commercial and government applications, and to analyze the design considerations and desired characteristics for future space transportation systems. Follow-ons to present space missions as well as a wide array of potential new space applications are considered in the study. This paper summarizes the space transportation system characteristics required to enable various classes of future missions. High reliability and the ability to achieve high flight rates per vehicle are shown to be key attributes for achieving more economical launch systems. Technical, economic and policy implications are also discussed.     

Future spacelift projections

In 1996 the NASA Advisory Council asked for a comprehensive look at future launch projections out to the year 2030 and beyond. In response to this request NASA sponsored a study at The Aerospace Corporation to develop long-range space transportation models for future commercial and government applications, and to analyze the design considerations and desired characteristics for future space transportation systems. Follow-ons to present space missions as well as a wide array of potential new space applications are considered in the study. This paper summarizes the space transportation system characteristics required to enable various classes of future missions. High reliability and the ability to achieve high flight rates per vehicle are shown to be key attributes for achieving more economical launch systems. Technical, economic and policy implications are also discussed.     

Goals for space exploration based on stakeholder value network considerations

We present a methodology that provides traceable analysis from stakeholders’ needs to prioritized goals for human space exploration. We first construct a network to represent the stakeholder environment of NASA’s human exploration efforts, then assess the intensity of these stakeholder needs, and build a numerical model to represent the flow of value in the network. The underlying principle is that as a rational actor, NASA should invest its resources in creating outputs that provide the greatest return of support to it. We showcase this methodology, seeded with test data, the results of which suggests that the most important outputs of the exploration endeavor are human and robotic exploration firsts and science data, but also include funding to the science community, providing interesting NASA mission event content directly to the public and to the media, and commercial contracts. We propose that goals should be structured to ensure these value outputs, and be written in such as way as to convey the subsequent creation of value in the network. The goals derived in this manner suggest that the majority of the value created by human space exploration derives from campaign level design, rather than from operation of transportation elements. There would be higher assurance that these value outputs would be delivered if a responsible official or entity within the exploration function was specifically tasked with ensuring stakeholder value creation.     

Advanced flight computing technologies for validation by NASA's new millennium program

The New Millennium Program (NMP) consists of a series of Deep-Space and Earth Orbiting missions that are technology-driven, in contrast to the more traditional science-driven space exploration missions of the past. These flights are designed to validate technologies that will enable a new era of low-cost highly miniaturized and highly capable spacebome applications in the new millennium. In addition to the series of flight projects managed by separate flight teams, the NMP technology initiatives are managed by the following six focused technology programs: Microelectronics Systems, Autonomy, Telecommunications, Instrument Technologies and Architectures, In-Situ Instruments and Micro-electromechanical Systems, and Modular and Multifunctional Systems. Each technology program is managed as an Integrated Product Development Team (IPDT) of government, academic, and industry partners. In this paper, we will describe elements of the technology roadmap proposed by the NMP Microelectronics IPDT. Moreover, we will relate the proposed technology roadmap to existing NASA technology development programs, such as the Advanced Flight Computing (AFC) program, and the Remote Exploration and Experimentation (REE) program, which constitute part of the on-going NASA technology development pipeline. We will also describe the Microelectronics Systems technologies that have been accepted as part of the first New Millennium Deep-Space One spacecraft, which is an asteroid fly-by mission scheduled for launched in July 1998.     

Roadmap to a star

NASA is currently constructing an Interstellar Roadmap that will outline a progressive series of phased technology efforts over several decades that would enable new science beyond the solar system, leading to and culminating in robotics exploration of nearby stars. The Roadmap is structured around a decadal progression of science missions and enabling technologies in which each decadal cycle has an intrinsic value in itself. The Roadmap serves at least 5 functions: 1) it lays the foundation for the development of a broad new strategic thrust of space exploration and development; 2) it outlines a long term progressive program for which each phase has an intrinsic value and can be argued independently of a Star Mission itself; 3) it defines a phased approach that would culminate in a large- scale breakthrough beamed energy capability that would have broad planetary and terrestrial applicability; 4) it describes an endeavor that could provide the technological basis of a U.S. economic engine for the first half of the 21st century; and 5) it provides a focus and a structure around which new government/industry economic relationships may be established. This paper outlines the process for constructing the Roadmap which is due to be completed in Fall 1998. It also poses questions raised by a mission of such scale and suggests some of the strategic value of such a Roadmap.     

Space policy and the size of the space shuttle fleet

During the space shuttle era, policy makers have repeatedly wrestled with the issue of fleet size. The number of shuttles had both practical and symbolic significance, reflecting the robustness of the space transportation system and US preeminence in space. In debating how many shuttles were needed, NASA and other government entities weighed various arguments to determine the optimum number of vehicles for human spaceflight. Deliberations and decisions about shuttle fleet size reflected changing policy priorities and attitudes about the role of the shuttle. That history frames issues that may arise again in planning for new space transportation vehicles beyond the shuttle.     

Advanced materials for space applications

Since NASA was created in 1958, over 6400 patents have been issued to the agency—nearly one in a thousand of all patents ever issued in the United States. A large number of these inventions have focused on new materials that have made space travel and exploration of the moon, Mars, and the outer planets possible. In the last few years, the materials developed by NASA Langley Research Center embody breakthroughs in performance and properties that will enable great achievements in space. The examples discussed below offer significant advantages for use in small satellites, i.e., those with payloads under a metric ton. These include patented products such as LaRC SI, LaRC RP 46, LaRC RP 50, PETI-5, TEEK, PETI-330, LaRC CP, TOR-LM and LaRC LCR (patent pending). These and other new advances in nanotechnology engineering, self-assembling nanostructures and multifunctional aerospace materials are presented and discussed below, and applications with significant technological and commercial advantages are proposed.     

The challenge of the US space station

We are on the verge of a new era of commercial and industrial expansion in space that will have a major impact on America's future and on the future of the world. It is a turning point that will set the US national agenda in space well into the 21st century, and, as such, will have an important impact on space-related activities worldwide. The USA is now gearing up to face the challenges of this new era. James Beggs, NASA Administrator, describes the US space station programme.     

Advanced materials for space applications

Since NASA was created in 1958, over 6400 patents have been issued to the agency—nearly one in a thousand of all patents ever issued in the United States. A large number of these inventions have focused on new materials that have made space travel and exploration of the moon, Mars, and the outer planets possible. In the last few years, the materials developed by NASA Langley Research Center embody breakthroughs in performance and properties that will enable great achievements in space. The examples discussed below offer significant advantages for use in small satellites, i.e., those with payloads under a metric ton. These include patented products such as LaRC SI, LaRC RP 46, LaRC RP 50, PETI-5, TEEK, PETI-330, LaRC CP, TOR-LM and LaRC LCR (patent pending). These and other new advances in nanotechnology engineering, self-assembling nanostructures and multifunctional aerospace materials are presented and discussed below, and applications with significant technological and commercial advantages are proposed.     

美国载人航天商业运输的发展

研究了美国载人航天商业运输的发展现状和趋势。美国在取消星座计划之后,实施商业乘员和货物项目,将依靠商业运输器实现＂国际空间站＂的乘员和货物运输,以缩短＂后航天飞机＂时代（航天飞机退役后）运输的断档期。美国商业乘员和货物项目包括商业轨道运输服务（COTS）计划、商业再补给服务（CRS）计划和商业乘员开发（CCDev）计划...     

Success criteria and risk management for the new millennium program

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) New Millennium Program (NMP) is a technology development and validation program that will flight-validate advanced, new technologies with space flight applications. NMP's purpose is twofold. First, it will develop technologies that will enable future spacecraft to be smaller, more capable and reliable, and to be launched more frequently. Second, it will validate the technologies in flight to reduce the risks to future science missions that fly these technologies for the first time. To measure the program's success, NMP has devised a set of criteria that stresses the relevance of technologies selected for flight validation to NASA's 21st-century science mission needs. Also, NMP has instituted a ‘risk management’ policy, where, through a combination of adequate resources and early risk assessment and risk mitigation plans for the technologies, the overall risk of the NMP flights can be rendered acceptable.     

A space exploration strategy that promotes international and commercial participation

NASA has created a plan to implement the Flexible Path strategy, which utilizes a heavy lift launch vehicle to deliver crew and cargo to orbit. In this plan, NASA would develop much of the transportation architecture (launch vehicle, crew capsule, and in-space propulsion), leaving the other in-space elements open to commercial and international partnerships. This paper presents a space exploration strategy that reverses that philosophy, where commercial and international launch vehicles provide launch services. Utilizing a propellant depot to aggregate propellant on orbit, smaller launch vehicles are capable of delivering all of the mass necessary for space exploration. This strategy has benefits to the architecture in terms of cost, schedule, and reliability.     

NASA spinoffs to bioengineering and medicine

Through the active transfer of technology, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Technology Utilization (TU) Program assists private companies, associations, and government agencies to make effective use of NASA's technological resources to improve U.S. economic competitiveness and to provide societal benefit. Aerospace technology from areas such as digital image processing, space medicine and biology, microelectronics, optics and electrooptics, and ultrasonic imaging have found many secondary applications in medicine. Examples of technology spinoffs are briefly discussed to illustrate the benefits realized through adaptation of aerospace technology to solve health care problems. Successful implementation of new technologies increasingly requires the collaboration of industry, universities, and government, and the TU Program serves as the liaison to establish such collaborations with NASA. NASA technology is an important resource to support the development of new medical products and techniques that will further advance the quality of health care available in the U.S. and worldwide.     

Challenges to US space sustainability

With space now crucial to such a wide range of activities on Earth, the USA must ensure the sustainability of its efforts, a task that involves technological feasibility and political will. Near-term challenges include US human access to space and the Shuttle transition, funding NASA sufficiently in a time of recession, and rebuilding the country's space industrial base. Longer-term challenges will be better protecting the space environment (including the electromagnetic spectrum) from overcrowding and the effects of space weather and NEOs, and defining responsibilities for distributing climate change data and recognition of property rights for the commercial development of in-space resources. As an aid to dealing with these challenges the USA must ask itself whether there is a human future in space and seek to answer the question in the course of human and robotic exploration beyond Earth.