Forecasting space markets

Space Policy is here reprinting edited extracts from two reports — one French, one American — which aim to forecast the market for space applications and launch services over the next 10 and 15 years respectively. Euroconsult 1986 edition of The World Space Industry Survey: Ten-Year Outlook gives a country-by-country analysis of policies and programmes; an evaluation of markets for space applications and a forecast of the market for launch systems. The Report on the 1986 Outside Users Payload Model, prepared by Battelle, Columbus Division, for the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, provides an estimate of demand for launch services for payloads in a range of mission categories flown by countries outside the Soviet bloc. Using different starting points and methodologies, the two reports nevertheless draw convincingly similar conclusions.     

Space law conference 2001 : Legal challenges and commercial opportunities for Asia

Many eminent space lawyers gathered in Singapore to attend the first space law conference to be held in South East Asia. Topics for discussion—which included commercialization of space activities and its effect on the needs of developing countries, and the legal issues of expanding communications and navigation satellite services—were of particular interest to the region. This report summarizes the presentations in each session and presents the conclusions and recommendations—such as the need for a legal instrument to regulate remote sensing—produced.     

Meeting the needs of the new millennium: passenger space travel and world economic growth

Without doubt, humans’ most urgent need at the start of the new millennium is the continuation of economic growth, which is the only means by which the great majority of the world population can lift themselves out of the poverty in which they live. A sine qua non for continuing economic growth is for the rich countries to continue to develop new industries—as they did throughout the 20th century, thereby creating high-productivity employment for hundreds of millions of people around the world. Arguably the most significant of these thus far is the development of passenger air travel from zero in 1900 to 1.5 billion passengers per year by 2000. It is becoming clear that passenger space travel could grow to reach a similar economic scale—and that no other space activity has comparable potential. The paper describes the potential contribution to world economic growth of passenger space travel; the failure of government space agencies either to aid its development or to make a contribution to economic growth commensurate to their cost; and the value for economic policy of prioritising the realisation of passenger space travel. The faster passenger space travel services grow, the more the space industry will contribute to “Meeting the Needs of the New Millennium”.     

SPS — time for a pilot plant

Scientists have expended much energy researching SPS but their theories have never yet been realistically tested. It is time for this to change and SPS 2000 — a Japanese-sponsored project to construct and operate a pilot plant to supply electricity to residents of equatorial zones — could provide the means. The project and its benefits are described and the political—economic imperatives for undertaking it presented. The author argues that there are cogent — and practical — reasons for funding a pilot plant, especially given the vast sums spent on other space activities, and on nuclear power, although the latter has never lived up to expectations.     

The biosphere 2 project and its potential role in assisting space exploration

Space Biospheres Ventures is developing technologies for its Biosphere 2 project — a 3 acre materially closed ecological system with human habitat, intensive agriculture and five wilderness biomes — and other life-support testbeds for space habitats in microgravity and the Moon and Mars, as well as for ecological research pertinent to the biosphere of Earth. These include soil bed reactors for air purification and biomass production; aquatic waste processing systems; real-time analytic systems; and computer systems of control and management. A space policy pursuing joint Earth and ‘space biospheres’ objectives and implications is discussed.     

Tracing the evolutionary path for space technologies

Proliferation and pace of advancing technologies warrant policy and strategic decision-making. Without thinking ahead, companies can loose marketshare and countries can yield comparative advantage. The rate at which burgeoning technologies progress, however, can make it difficult for corporations and governments alike to discern or better anticipate critical junctures in technology developments. This paper presents a conceptual, multidimensional framework, the “evolutionary path”, for understanding the stages of technological development in the civil space area. The analysis draws from three case studies — communications satellites, computers, and launch vehicles — and shows how the implications and developments of new, breakthrough technologies differ from the incremental technology upgrades or the later emergence of interconnected systems and infrastructures.     

Improved space safety for astronauts

The 2003 Columbia accident demonstrated that spaceflight remains a risky and dangerous human endeavor, yet there have been few ‘unofficial’ investigations into astronaut safety. This report summarizes the findings of one such study by George Washington University's Space & Advanced Communications Research Institute—e.g. that simplicity of design may be better than complexity, that cargo missions would be better carried out robotically and that all new space transportation systems should be developed to common international standards—before examining ways that international cooperation can advance the cause of space safety. In establishing future space safety standards input from a wider range of participants (industry, universities and private research institutes, as well as space agencies, etc.) will need to be sought.     

Basic space science and developing countries

Basic science — including space science — is vital for national development, but developing countries often meet obstacles to participation in the international scientific community. This can be mitigated by international cooperation, particularly in the field of education. The author calls for a concerted effort to increase such cooperation regionally, internationally and bilaterally; international organizations should also become involved. Various forms of cooperation are suggested and UN efforts in the promotion of basic space science are described.     

Economics of telecommunications space segments

This paper proposes a complete model for assessing the economics of telecommunications satellite systems, accounting for spacecraft development and manufacturing, launch and operations in orbit. This allows to account for such parameters as the mass and lifetime of the satellites, the number and type of payloads, the number of satellites procured and launched, the spare policy, the launch vehicle, the insurances, the satellite average MTTF and the management of the space segment efforts.

The model is divided into four parts: the spacecraft mass model, the spacecraft procurement cost model, the MTTF model and the space segment cost-effectiveness model. It provides for the rapid solution of a number of problems within a wide range of parameters such as assessing the influence on space segment economics of —certain satellite technologies, —satellite and payload mass, —number of payloads per spacecraft, —satellite lifetime, or —spare policy.     

The overredundant spacecraft—A competitive approach to future telecommunication satellites

Present operational space telecommunication systems are based on simultaneous availability of more than one satellite on orbit, mainly a spare satellite in addition to the operational one.Considering the costs associated to the delivery of extra flight models and to extra launchers, the question is asked whether it would not be advantageous to launch a very limited number of “overredundant” spacecraft instead of several standard satellites.The paper gives main conditions of reliability, size and redundancy concept under which an “overredundant” spacecraft could be a competitive approach to future operational systems.     

Kazakhstan's space policy in a changing national and global context

In the wake of its transition to a market economy and the political and social reforms that have accompanied this, Kazakhstan—home to the renowned Baikonur space complex—is experiencing greater demand for space services. This article reports on the drivers behind and main features of the country's current space program and analyzes Kazakahstan's space policy. Key priorities are capacity building, maximizing revenue from the lease of Baikonur, international cooperation, in particular with Russia, as a means of gaining know-how and entering the world space industry, developing Earth observations and broadcasting expertise, and placing the country's activities within a legal framework.     

国外载人航天器回收着陆技术的进展

进入21世纪,国际上掀起了一个空间探索活动的新高潮,而作为载人空间探索活动重要支撑的回收和着陆技术也相应取得了重要进展。文章综述了关、欧、俄在载人飞船、登月舱、火星着陆器等载人航天器回收着陆技术方面的研究和进展。     

The impact of launch vehicle type and size on development cost

The technical development trend of future launch vehicle systems is towards fully reusable systems, in order to reduce space transportation cost. However, different types of launch vehicles are feasible, as there are

• —winged two-stage systems (WTS)

• —ballistic single-stage vehicles (BSS)

• —ballistic two-stage vehicles (BTS)

The performance of those systems is compared according to the present state of the art as well as the development cost, based on the “TRANSCOST-Model”. The development costs are shown versus launch mass (GLOW) and pay-load for the three types of reusable systems mentioned above.It is shown that performance optimization and cost minimization lead to different results. It is more economic to increase the vehicle size for achieving higher performance, instead of increasing technical complexity.Finally it is described that due to the essentially lower launch cost of reusable vehicles it will be feasible to recover the development cost by an amortization charge on the launch cost. This possibility, however, would allow commercial funding of future launch vehicle developments.     

Space station — the new frontier

The exciting challenge of building a permanent space station has been taken up by the USA, and participation in its development has been offered to the USA's allies. European countries are faced with the dilemma of whether to cooperate or to try to develop an autonomous approach. This article discusses the opportunities for Europe in participating closely in the US project — particularly in providing pressurized modules based on the Columbus programme — and argues that it is an opportunity not to be missed.     

Multipole Models of the Earth's Magnetic Field

To develop a mathematical model of rotational motion of an artificial satellite about its center of mass under the action of various forces (magnetic, Lorentz, etc.) caused by the geomagnetic field, it is necessary to know the induction of the Earth's magnetic field (EMF) as a function of the radius vector of a given point in the near-Earth space. Because the EMF possesses a complex structure and the above-mentioned functional dependence is unavailable in explicit analytic form, a set of approximate models of the EMF should be used. The simplest such model—a right dipole (aligned with the axis of rotation)—does not enable one to reveal in detail the influence of diurnal EMF rotation on the rotational motion of a satellite. The next EMF approximation—an inclined magnetic dipole—does not suffer from the above-mentioned drawback. However, it is shown that not all corrections to the magnetic induction of the EMF of the same order of magnitude are taken into account in the course of transformation from the model of aligned dipole to the model of inclined dipole. So, to develop the EMF model accurately accounting for the absence of axial symmetry of the EMF with respect to the axis of diurnal rotation of the Earth, in general, the effect of the quadrupole component of the geomagnetic potential on the EMF induction (and, probably, even the components of higher orders) must be taken into consideration. By using the International Geomagnetic Reference Field IGRF-2000, the multipole models of the EMF, corresponding to quadrupole, octupole, and higher-order approximations, were constructed and studied in this work. The EMF potential is expressed in terms of its multipole tensors. As a result, projections of the induction and induction gradient of EMF in the center of mass of the satellite onto the axes of the orbital coordinate system can be written in convenient and concise form. The expressions for the first four multipole tensors through the known geomagnetic constants are found. A method for estimating the reliability of these models is put forward, and the regions of applicability of the quadrupole and octupole models are drawn on the plane of orbital parameters.     

Space commercialization and the law

This article examines the current legal status of commercial activities in space and describes the legislation — both national and international — existing for their regulation. The question of who is responsible for the action of non-governmental entities is thoroughly discussed, as is the notion of freedom of enterprise. Finally the author looks at the most commercialized areas of space activities — telecommunications and Earth observations — before drawing some conclusions on likely future trends in the privitization and regulation of space activities.     

Russian and Ukrainian satellites to observe the oceans

The Russian/CIS space programme is planning launches from the world’s oceans. In July 1998 a small German satellite was launched from a Russian submarine, the first launch of its kind. A whole family of submarine-launched missiles is available for commercial launches of this kind. In addition, 1999 should see the first flight in the Sea Launch programme which brings together Russian, Ukrainian, US and Norwegian experience.     

Shaping a legal framework for the commercial use of outer space: recommendations and conclusions from Project 2001

Private and commercial activity in outer space still poses challenges to space law and policy. Within ‘Project 2001’—a legal research project by the University of Cologne's Institute of Air and Space Law and the German Aerospace Center (DLR)—six international expert working groups examined international and national laws, in order to identify gaps and, where necessary, propose improvements to the present legal framework for private space activities. The results were presented and discussed at an international colloquium in May 2001 in Cologne, Germany, where final conclusions have been drawn. This report presents a summary of the project's work and main conclusions, which are documented in full in a comprehensive book to be published in May 2002.     

国外光学成像卫星发展现状简析

光学成像侦察卫星是现代战争中信息获取的重要手段,世界上许多国家都在发展光学成像侦察卫星系统,在国际航天侦察领域也呈现了三个集团的发展态势。介绍了世界主要航天大国的光学成像侦察卫星的在轨运行、技术指标等发展现状,以及主要在研项目进展及其预期达到的能力,最后分析了其未来技术发展和军事应用趋势。     

Strategic, technological and ethical aspects of establishing colonies on Moon and Mars

With the vast experience gained by Aerospace Community in the last five decades, the natural future course of action will be to expand Space Exploration. Our understanding of Moon is relatively better with a number of unmanned satellite missions carried out by the leading Space Agencies and manned missions to Moon by USA. Also a number of unmanned satellite missions and surface rover missions were carried out to Mars by those Space agencies generating many new details about Mars. While the future exploration efforts by global community will also be centered obviously on Moon and Mars, it is noteworthy that already NASA had declared its plans for establishing a Surface Base on Moon and developing the technical infrastructure required. Surface Bases on Moon and Mars give rise to a number of strategic, technical and ethical issues both in the process of development, and in the process of establishing the bases. The strategic issues related to Moon and Mars Surface Bases will be centered around development of enabling technologies, cost of the missions, and international cooperation. The obvious path for tackling both the technological development and cost issues will be through innovative and new means of international cooperation. International cooperation can take many forms like—all capable players joining a leader, or sharing of tasks at system level, or all players having their independent programmes with agreed common interfaces of the items being taken to and left on the surface of Moon/Mars. Each model has its own unique features. Among the technical issues, the first one is that of the Mission Objectives—why Surface Bases have to be developed and what will be the activity of crew on Surface Bases? Surface Bases have to meet mainly the issues on long term survivability of humans on the Mars/Moon with their specific atmosphere, gravity and surface characteristics. Moon offers excellent advantages for astronomy while posing difficulties with respect to solar power utilization and extreme temperature variations. Hence the technical challenges depend on a number of factors starting from mission requirements. Obviously the most important technical challenge to be addressed will be in the areas of crew safety, crew survivability, adequate provision to overcome contingencies, and in-situ resource utilization. Towards this, new innovations will be developed in areas such as specialized space suits, rovers, power and communication systems, and ascent and descent modules. The biggest ethical issue is whether humankind from Earth is targeting ‘habitation’ or ‘colonization’ of Moon/Mars. The next question will be whether the in-situ resource exploitation will be only for carrying out further missions to other planets from Moon/Mars or for utilization on Earth. The third ethical issue will be the long term impact of pollution on Moon/Mars due to technologies employed for power generation and other logistics on Surfaces. The paper elaborates the views of the authors on the strategic, technical and ethical aspects of establishing Surface Bases and colonies on Moon and Mars. The underlying assumptions and gray areas under each aspect will be explained with the resulting long-term implications.