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文章介绍了碰撞程序和碎片程序,并进行了评价。前一个程序说明了碎片撞击的破裂特性;后一个程序给出了当一个空间物体进入碎片云时的撞击概率。 相似文献
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针对航天器轨道偏差传播问题,提出一种高斯和模型与状态转移张量结合的预报方法。该方法使用多个子高斯分布加权拟合状态偏差分布,再以高阶状态转移张量分别预报每个子高斯分布,以捕获偏差分布的非高斯性,减小预报误差。将其应用到航天器二体轨道问题中,对比分析不同方法的预报结果。仿真结果表明,该方法可以逼近Monte Carlo仿真的预报精度,并显著提高计算效率,对长时间预报问题,效率提高可达数十倍。该方法面向一般的非线性系统状态偏差预报问题,尤其在长时间仿真预报时兼具很好的精度和计算效率。 相似文献
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传统的卫星成本预测模型预测结果单一,未考虑相应的不确定性因素。对此,提出了基于蒙特卡洛方法的卫星成本预测模型。该模型综合考虑了卫星成本技术的不确定性并给出了预测值的区间范围和概率分布。为了降低应用该模型所产生的误差,提出了最优分层抽样的方法,并通过划分分层区间提高了抽样的效率。最后,将收集到的相关数据代人该模型,其结果精度大约提高了10%左右。可见,使用优化的蒙特卡洛方法进行卫星成本预测具有较好的精确度。 相似文献
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本文对研究导弹系统模拟打靶的蒙特卡洛法与统计协方差法进行分析、比较。蒙特卡洛法简明、直接,但试验次数要求1000次以上,方能有仿真的效果。统计协方差法可以用来近似分析非线性系统,研究由输入干扰引起的围绕标准弹道的小偏差,一般效果比蒙特卡洛法好。 相似文献
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Long-duration spacecraft in low earth orbit such as the International Space Station (ISS) are highly susceptible to high-speed impacts by pieces of debris from past earth-orbiting missions. Among the hazards that accompany the penetration of a pressurized manned spacecraft are critical crack propagation in the module wall, crew hypoxia, and uncontrolled thrust due to air rushing out of the module wall hole. A Monte Carlo simulation tool was used to determine the effect of spacecraft wall construction on the survivability of ISS modules and crew following an orbital debris penetration. The simulation results indicate that enhanced shield wall designs (i.e., multi-wall systems with heavier inner bumpers) always lead to higher overall survivability of the station and crew due to an overwhelming decrease in likelihood of module penetration. The results of the simulations also indicate that changes in crew operations, equipment locations, and operation procedures can significantly reduce the likelihood of crew or station loss following an orbital debris penetration. 相似文献
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疲劳裂纹扩展速率da/dN的蒙特卡罗模拟 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
用蒙特卡罗法模拟分析疲劳裂纹扩展速率,确定了算式中的参数分布规律及相关性。通过计算数据与试验数据的对比分析,证明蒙特卡罗法模拟结果合理、可靠。 相似文献
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A model for the evolution of the low Earth orbit man-made debris population is presented and the results of several test cases discussed. Debris sources include normal operations in space, explosions occurring on spacecraft in orbit, and collisions between objects in orbit; the stochastic occurrence of these deposition events is modeled using Monte Carlo techniques. A technique for discriminating between objects populating long-life vs rapid-decay orbits is discussed and applied to the analysis of debris contributions from collisions of comparable sized objects. In varying degrees, each of the cases presented indicate there is cause for concern for spacecraft and space operations from the 1990s onward-man-made debris will play a role which may vary from presenting a considerable hazard to certain operations or certain spacecraft to effectively prohibiting the use of certain spaceccraft or space operations. 相似文献
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Sheng-wei Lan Sen LiuAuthor VitaeYi LiAuthor Vitae Fa-wei KeAuthor VitaeJie HuangAuthor Vitae 《Acta Astronautica》2014
Cross-sectional area is an important parameter for spacecraft breakup debris as it is the directly measured data in space observation. It is significant for observing and analysing the spacecraft breakup event to accurately modelling the area distribution of the breakup debris. In this paper, experimental study has been performed on debris area distribution characteristics of spacecraft under hypervelocity impact. The tests are carried out at the ballistic ranges of CARDC. Aluminium projectiles are launched to normally impact the simulated spacecrafts at about 3.0 km/s. The simulated spacecrafts are made up of aluminium plates, filled with some simulated electronics boxes, each of which was installed with a circuit board. “Soft-catch” devices are used to recover the breakup fragments. The test results show that: 1) the relationship between the cross-sectional area and the characteristic length of debris, which can be obtained in the logarithmic coordinates by linear fitting, represents the debris shape characteristic in a certain extent; 2) the area-to-mass ratios of fragments show normal distributions in the logarithmic coordinates; 3) debris made of different materials can be distinguished by different peaks on the distribution curves; 4) the area-to-mass ratio distributions can be expressed by a linear superimposition of several normal functions which represent the main materials of the spacecraft. 相似文献
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用SGP4模型和卡尔曼滤波实现空间碎片轨道预报 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
文章将扩展卡尔曼滤波算法成功应用于求空间碎片的双行元初值及其轨道预报问题。首先推导出扩展的卡尔曼滤波求双行元的计算公式;然后针对地面观测站对空间碎片的监测进行了应用研究,编制了相应的计算程序并进行了数学仿真。结果表明该算法可以较准确地得到监测目标的双行元初值,从而可实现中长期轨道预报。 相似文献
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为了实现对航天器在轨解体事件及其碎片分布特性的快速分析,中国空气动力研究与发展中心(CARDC)开发了SFA(Spacecraft Fragmentation Analysis)软件。该软件主要基于CSBM航天器解体模型开发形成,同时集成了NASA的标准解体模型。SFA软件具有解体程度分析、解体碎片生成、碎片分布统计等功能,并可以实时显示计算结果、绘制统计曲线。文章着重介绍了SFA软件2.0版的功能模块、主要算法、界面及使用方法等,并针对Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251碰撞、Solwind P78航天器解体等在轨事件进行了分析。 相似文献
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Initial orbital parameter errors are used to examine the miss distance between a spacecraft and an ensemble of tracked objects by a Monte Carlo-type analysis. The radial separation between orbits is evaluated and a keep-out zone is determined, which reduces the risk of collision to an acceptable level.An operational prediction methodology is suggested based on a catalog database, which identifies potentially hazardous approaches and computes the probability of collision for selected spacecraft. An example for the Mir Space Station is presented, which estimates the collision probability and the cross-sectional flux of cataloged objects for the time frame of interest. The results appear to be in good agreement with those of other space debris models. 相似文献
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基于改进MCMC的波束内目标与诱饵联合参数估计 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
波束内目标与诱饵的参数估计是导引头正确实现目标分选、完成波束指向调整与精确跟踪的必要条件。目标与诱饵的“紧密接近”导致接收回波混叠,使得常规参数测量与估计方法失效。基于实际采样处理中目标回波能量会“溢出”到相邻匹配滤波采样点这一信号模型,通过贝叶斯原理从观测的条件似然以及未知参数的先验分布获取待估计参数的后验概率分布,采用Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)方法中的Metropolis-Hastings (M-H)抽样算法联合估计目标与诱饵的相关参数,并根据拖曳式诱饵干扰对抗的特点对M-H抽样进行了改进。各种典型干扰条件及动态攻击场景下的仿真试验表明了本文方法的有效性。
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