Satellite-observed biological variability in the equatorial Pacific during the 2009–2011 ENSO cycle

The event of 2009–2011 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides an opportunity to gain insight into the biological variability of the equatorial Pacific Ocean for an entire ENSO cycle with satellite and in situ observations. Even though El Niño and La Niña in general led to respectively weakened and enhanced chlorophyll-a concentration and net primary production (NPP) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 2009–2011 ENSO cycle, biological responses were highly disparate along the equator and attributed to different driving mechanisms. In the eastern equatorial Pacific east of 150°E, the El Niño-La Niña biological change was in general small except for the transition period even though sea surface temperature (SST) showed over ∼5 °C drop from El Niño to La Niña. In the central-eastern (170°W–140°W) equatorial Pacific, moderate change of biological activity is attributed to the changes of thermocline driven by the eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin waves and changes of zonal currents and undercurrents. Highest biological response in this ENSO cycle was located in the central (170°E–170°W) and central-western (150°E–170°E) equatorial Pacific with quadruple chlorophyll-a concentration and over ∼400 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹ increase of NPP from El Niño in 2009 to La Niña in 2010. However, spatial pattern of ENSO biological variability as represented with NPP is not exactly the same as chlorophyll-a variability. Wind-driving mixing of nutrients and eastward advection of the oligotrophic warm pool waters are attributed to this significant biological variability in this region.     

Deriving a sea surface temperature record suitable for climate change research from the along-track scanning radiometers

We describe the approach to be adopted for a major new initiative to derive a homogeneous record of sea surface temperature for 1991–2007 from the observations of the series of three along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). This initiative is called (A)RC: (Advanced) ATSR Re-analysis for Climate. The main objectives are to reduce regional biases in retrieved sea surface temperature (SST) to less than 0.1 K for all global oceans, while creating a very homogenous record that is stable in time to within 0.05 K decade⁻¹, with maximum independence of the record from existing analyses of SST used in climate change research. If these stringent targets are achieved, this record will enable significantly improved estimates of surface temperature trends and variability of sufficient quality to advance questions of climate change attribution, climate sensitivity and historical reconstruction of surface temperature changes. The approach includes development of new, consistent estimators for SST for each of the ATSRs, and detailed analysis of overlap periods. Novel aspects of the approach include generation of multiple versions of the record using alternative channel sets and cloud detection techniques, to assess for the first time the effect of such choices. There will be extensive effort in quality control, validation and analysis of the impact on climate SST data sets. Evidence for the plausibility of the 0.1 K target for systematic error is reviewed, as is the need for alternative cloud screening methods in this context.     

Analysis of the variability of temperature gradient in the ocean frontal zones based on satellite data

AVHRR MCSST data for the periods 1982–2000 (mean weekly data) were used to calculate mean gradient fields in the ocean for different periods of time. Three-month averaged sea surface temperature gradients (SSTG) and their mean seasonal variations have been studied for 25 points in the large-scale oceanic fronts zones. Major oceanic fronts in the Atlantic and Pacific have been identified and compared in literature. In the North Atlantic and Pacific, the areas under study were the North Polar Front and Subpolar Fronts. In the South Atlantic and Pacific we studied the region of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and the fronts formed by this current, known as the South Polar Front, and the Subantarctic Front. SSTG were also calculated for El Niño (Southeast Pacific) and Benguela Current (Southeast Atlantic).     

Response of the mesopause temperatures to solar activity over Yakutia in 1999–2013

OH(6-2) rotational temperature trends and solar cycle effects are studied. Observations were carried out at the Maimaga station (63.04°N, 129.51°E) for the period August 1999 to March 2013. Measurements were conducted with an infrared spectrograph. Temperatures were determined from intensity ratios in the P branch of the OH band. The monthly average residuals of temperature after the subtraction of the mean seasonal variation were used for a search for the solar component of temperature response. The dependence of temperatures on solar activity has been investigated using the Ottawa 10.7 cm flux as a proxy. A linear regression fitting on residual temperatures yields a solar cycle coefficient of 4.24 ± 1.39 K/100 solar flux units (SFU). The cross-correlation analyses showed that changes of the residual temperature follow changes of solar activity with a quasi-two year delay (25 months). The temperature response at the delay of 25 months reaches 7 K/100 SFU. The possible reason of the observed delay can be an influence of quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of the atmosphere on the relation of temperature and solar activity. The value of the temperature trend after the subtraction of seasonal and solar components is not statistically significant.     

Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

New evidence of solar variation in temperature proxies from Northern Fennoscandia

A new summer temperature proxy was built for northern Fennoscandia in AD 1000–2004 using parameters of tree growth from a large region, extending from the Swedish Scandes to the Kola Peninsula. It was found that century-scale (55–140 year) cyclicity is present in this series during the entire time interval. This periodicity is highly significant and has a bi-modal structure, i.e. it consists of two oscillation modes, 55–100 year and 100–140 year variations. A comparison of the century-long variation in the northern Fennoscandian temperature proxy with the corresponding variations in Wolf numbers and concentration of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be in glacial ice shows that a probable cause of this periodicity is the modulation of regional climate by the secular solar cycle of Gleissberg. This is in line with the results obtained previously for a more limited part of the region (Finnish Lapland: 68–70° N, 20–30° E). Thus the reality of a link between long-term changes in solar activity and climate in Fennoscandia has been confirmed. Possible mechanisms of solar influence on the lower troposphere are discussed.     

Ionospheric heating due to solar flares as measured by SROSS-C2 satellite

The data on thermal fluctuations of the topside ionosphere have been measured by Retarding Potential Analyser (RPA) payload aboard the SROSS-C2 satellite over the Indian region for half of the solar cycle (1995–2000). The data on solar flare has been obtained from National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) Boulder, Colorado (USA) and other solar indices (solar radio flux and sunspot number) were download from NGDC website. The ionospheric electron and ion temperatures show a consistent enhancement during the solar flares. The enhancement in the electron temperature is 28–92% and for ion temperature it is 18–39% compared to the normal day’s average temperature. The enhancement of ionospheric temperatures due to solar flares is correlated with the variation of sunspot and solar radio flux (F10.7cm). All the events studied in the present paper fall in the category of subflare with almost same intensity. The ionospheric electron and ion temperatures enhancement have been compared with the IRI model values.     

Assessment of the sensitivity of vegetation to El-Niño/Southern Oscillation events over China

This research explores the sensitivity of vegetation in China to El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from 1982 to 2006. The ENSO events are defined by the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and variation in vegetation cover is captured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Pearson’s χ2 test was used to identify the areas where the variation in vegetation was sensitive to El Niño and La Niña events. The difference in the sensitivity of various ecosystems was investigated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product in 2000. Composite NDVI graphs during El Niño, La Niña and non-ENSO years were also produced to investigate the ENSO relationship with the six vegetation ecosystems during El Niño, La Niña and normal phases. The results show that most of the ENSO-sensitive land in China is only affected by one of the two phases of ENSO events, and the area of El Niño-sensitive vegetation is much larger than that of La Niña-sensitive vegetation. North China and the Hengduan Mountains are the two cores of the El Niño-sensitive areas, while the La Niña-sensitive areas are mainly distributed in the central, northwest and northeast regions of China. The sensitivity of vegetation varies across ecosystems: grassland and shrubland had the largest share of El Niño-sensitive areas, and sparse vegetation and savanna were the most sensitive to La Niña events. Overall, the impacts of El Niño events on vegetation in China had regular seasonal variation, while the impacts of La Niña events had regular zonal distribution.     

Cross testing of ionosphere models IRI-2001 and IRI-2007, data from satellite altimeters (Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1) and global ionosphere maps

In this study, we use a great body of statistical data covering the entire 23rd solar cycle to cross test data of satellite altimeters, Global Ionosphere Maps and the International Reference Ionosphere models, IRI-2001 and IRI-2007. It is revealed that experimental TEC values of the satellite altimeters regularly exceed the model ones by ∼3 TECU (1 TECU = 10¹⁶ m⁻²). The best possible value of difference between TECs obtained from altimeter and GIM-map data significantly differs for different laboratories: the maximum for CODG data falls on 2.5 TECU, ESAG – 3 TECU, JPLG – 0 TECU, UPCG – 2 TECU. The dependence of experimental and model data root-mean-square deviation on the F10.7 index is shown to be nearly linear. IRI-2001 and IRI-2007 relative errors are characterized by considerable 11-year and annual variations. Given the geomagnetic planetary index K_p under 7, IRI-2001 and IRI-2007 reproduce TEC in the ionosphere with an accuracy of ∼30% relative to measurement data from satellite altimeters. The amplitude of absolute error variations resulting from the difference in ionization enhancement between the model and the real ionosphere during the morning solar terminator transit is ∼5 TECU.     

Study of the influence of solar variability on a regional (Indian) climate: 1901–2007

We use Indian temperature data of more than 100 years to study the influence of solar activity on climate. We study the Sun–climate relationship by averaging solar and climate data at various time scales; decadal, solar activity and solar magnetic cycles. We also consider the minimum and maximum values of sunspot number (SSN) during each solar cycle. This parameter SSN is correlated better with Indian temperature when these data are averaged over solar magnetic polarity epochs (SSN maximum to maximum). Our results indicate that the solar variability may still be contributing to ongoing climate change and suggest for more investigations.     

Solar proton events recorded in the stratosphere during cosmic ray balloon observations in 1957–2008

Long-term balloon observations have been performed by the Lebedev Physical Institute since 1957 up to the present time. The observations are taken several times a week at the polar and mid latitudes and allow us to study dynamics of galactic and solar cosmic ray as well as secondary particle fluxes in the atmosphere and in the near-Earth space. Solar energetic particles (120) – mostly protons – (SEP) events with >100 MeV proton intensity above 1 cm⁻² s⁻¹ s⁻¹ were recorded during 1958–2006. Before the advent of the SEP monitoring on spacecraft these results constituted the only homogeneous series of >100 MeV SEP events. The SEP intensities and energy spectra inferred from the Lebedev Physical Institute observations are consistent with the results taken in the adjacent energy intervals by the spacecraft and neutron monitors. Joint consideration of the SEP events series recorded by balloons and by neutron monitors during solar cycles 20–23 makes it possible to restore the probable number of events in solar cycle 19, which was not properly covered by observations. Some correlation was found between duration of SEP event production in a solar cycle and sunspot cycle characteristics.     

On the time lag between solar wind dynamic parameters and solar activity UV proxies

The solar activity displays variability and periodic behaviours over a wide range of timescales, with the presence of a most prominent cycle with a mean length of 11 years. Such variability is transported within the heliosphere by solar wind, radiation and other processes, affecting the properties of the interplanetary medium. The presence of solar activity–related periodicities is well visible in different solar wind and geomagnetic indices, although their time lags with respect to the solar cycle lead to hysteresis cycles. Here, we investigate the time lag behaviour between a physical proxy of the solar activity, the Ca II K index, and two solar wind parameters (speed and dynamic pressure), studying how their pairwise relative lags vary over almost five solar cycles. We find that the lag between Ca II K index and solar wind speed is not constant over the whole time interval investigated, with values ranging from 6 years to $～$1 year (average 3.2 years). A similar behaviour is found also for the solar wind dynamic pressure. Then, by using a Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis we obtain a 10.21-year mean periodicity for the speed and 10.30-year for the dynamic pressure. We speculate that the different periodicities of the solar wind parameters with respect to the solar 11-year cycle may be related to the overall observed temporal evolution of the time lags. Finally, by accounting for them, we obtain empirical relations that link the amplitude of the Ca II K index to the two solar wind parameters.     

Sodium lidar measurements of mesopause region temperatures at 23° S

A sodium lidar, capable of measuring temperature in the 80–100 km region, has been in operation at São José dos Campos (23° S, 46 W) since March 2007. Good quality data have been obtained for late autumn, winter and spring, but weather conditions make it extremely difficult to make measurements from mid-November to mid- February. We find the temperature structure to be strongly modulated by tides and gravity waves, but average profiles typically show a primary mesopause height close to 100 km with temperatures around 180 K, and a tendency for a secondary minimum of about 185 K to occur close to 90 km. Vertical temperature gradients greater than 50 K/km are sometimes seen even on profiles averaged over several hours. The strongest gradients are always positive and are frequently associated with strong gradients in sodium concentration. On the other hand, we frequently see rapid changes in the temperature profile, suggesting that models and non-local temperature measurements, as made by satellite radiometers, for example, are of little use in applications such as the analysis of gravity wave propagation seen in airglow images.     

Sensitivity analysis for air temperature profile estimation methods around the tropopause using simulated Aqua/AIRS data

A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate potential improvements to the accuracy of air temperature profile retrievals near the tropopause. A simple inversion method is employed to identify and remove redundant spectral channels from the retrievals using simulated data for the high-spectral resolution sounder AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) on the Aqua satellite. Bayesian optimal theory and inverse technique are applied for the atmospheric temperature profile retrievals, and the 15 μm CO₂ absorption bands (620–750 cm⁻¹) are chosen for this study. Sequentially elimination of redundant channels is directly integrated into the inverse scheme for the temperature profile, in order to accurately retain the valuable channels and remove all the redundant channels, for accurate retrieval of the temperature profile. Also, the tropopause and troposphere are treated differently in the inverse scheme to improve the retrieval accuracy in the tropopause. Results of a sensitivity analysis based on this method, for the Tropical and Middle-Latitude Summer models simulated by MODTRAN4.0, show that the estimated accuracies are improved by 2 K around the tropopause, and are only changed by less than 0.2 K in the troposphere.     

New flare model using recent measurements of the solar ultraviolet irradiance

The solar photon output from the Sun, which was once thought to be constant, varies considerably over time scales from seconds during solar flares to years due to the solar cycle. This is especially true in the wavelengths shorter than 190 nm. These variations cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environment on similar time scales, which then affects many things including satellite drag, radio communications, atmospheric densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions of Earth and other planets, as well as the accuracy in the Global Positioning System (GPS). The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model that estimates the solar irradiance at wavelengths from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm resolution with a time cadence of 60 s. This is a high enough temporal resolution to model variations due to solar flares, for which few accurate measurements at these wavelengths exist. This model also captures variations on the longer time scales of solar rotation (days) and solar cycle (years). Daily average proxies used are the 0–4 nm irradiance, the Mg II c/w, F10.7, as well as the 1 nm bins centered at 30.5 nm, 121.5 (Lyman Alpha), and 36.5 nm. The GOES 0.1–0.8 nm irradiance is used as the flare proxy. The FISM algorithms are given, and results and comparisons are shown that demonstrate the FISM estimations agree within the stated uncertainties to the various measurements of the solar Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) irradiance.     

Flaring loop parameters estimated from solar decimeter type U-like and type J-like fine structures

This work presents the analysis of five fine structures in the solar radio emission, observed between June 2000 and October 2001 by the Brazilian Solar Spectroscope (BSS), in the decimeter frequency band of 950–2500 MHz. Based on their morphological characteristics identified in the dynamic spectra, the fine structures had been classified as type U-like or type J-like bursts. Such emissions are variants of the type III bursts. They support the hypothesis of generation by plasma emission mechanism, from interaction of electron beams accelerated during solar flares, propagating along closed magnetic structures, within the trapped plasma of the solar corona. The spectral and temporal characteristics of the five fine structures had been obtained from the dynamic spectra and the parameters of the agent and the emitting source have been determined, assuming both fundamental and harmonic emissions. The analysis revealed the flux density of the structures is less than 20–80 s.f.u. For assumption of harmonic emission, the interval of values for the source parameters estimated are: the loop size is (0.3–5.1) × 10¹⁰ cm; the electron beam velocity is in the range of 0.16–0.53 c; the temperature of coronal loop top is of the order of (0.25–1.55) × 10⁷ K; and the low limit for the magnetic field is of 7–26 G. These results are in agreement with previous determinations reported in the literature.     

Atmospheric response to a Hot SST Event in November 2006 as observed by the AIRS instrument

Using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) products of atmospheric temperature and geopotential height, we investigate the atmospheric response to HE0611, which was found and investigated by [Qin, H., Kawamura, H., Sakaida, F., Ando, K. A case study of the tropical Hot Event in November 2006 (HE0611) using a geostationary meteorological satellite and the TAO/TRITON mooring array. J. Geophys. Res. 113, C08045, doi: 10.1029/2007JC004640, 2008]. HE0611 was formed by connecting two very high SST areas, HE0611-East and HE0611-West. The period-mean atmosphere temperatures at levels of 925 and 850 hPa in HE0611-West are higher, by about 0.5 K, than those in WE0611-East while the atmospheric temperatures at middle to high levels (700–300 hPa) are higher in HE0611-East. The period-mean geopotential heights HE0611-East are much lower than those in HE0611-West for the levels from the surface to 400 hPa. The mean geopotential heights from 400 hPa to 200 hPa are higher in HE0611-East. In the middle and high layers over HE0611-West, the atmosphere temperatures gradually decrease from 7th to 17th, and then increase significantly. The increase in HE0611-East starts from 15th November, which is earlier than that of HE0611-West. The geopotential heights in the high layer of both the areas also show corresponding behaviors. The lagged atmospheric response in the western part is confirmed by the correlation analysis. It emerges that the atmospheric response to HE0611 is well organized and associated with deep convention in HE0611-East and subsidence in HE0611-West. These are also consistent with the HE0611 features and evolution revealed by earlier HE studies.     

On mid-term periodicities of high-latitude solar activity

The mid-term periodicities of polar faculae are studied separately for the total disk, northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun for a time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. Apart from the 11-year Schwabe cycle which is the fundamental period and is found in all of the three time series, the following prominent results are found: (1) the rotational periodicity of solar activity at high latitudes is approximately from 28 to 32 days; (2) a large number of quasi-periods appearing in low-latitude solar activity (annual variation, 1.3–1.7 years, quasi-biennial oscillation, and 4–5 years) also exist in polar faculae; (3) the periodicities on both hemispheres are not identical.     

A new approach to solar cycle forecasting

We describe a novel approach for determining the timing of the solar cycle and tracking its evolution relative to other cycles. This method also has predictive capability for forecasting the cycle “onset.” Based on current trends, we expect that Cycle 23 will be about 1 year longer than the previous two cycles.     

Coastal sea level changes in Europe from GPS,tide gauge,satellite altimetry and GRACE, 1993–2011

Sea level changes are threatening the human living environments, particularly along the European Coasts with highly dense population. In this paper, coastal sea level changes in western and southern Europe are investigated for the period 1993–2011 using Global Positioning System (GPS), Tide Gauge (TG), Satellite Altimetry (SA), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and geophysical models. The mean secular trend is 2.26 ± 0.52 mm/y from satellite altimetry, 2.43 ± 0.61 mm/y from TG+GPS and 1.99 ± 0.67 mm/y from GRACE mass plus steric components, which have a remarkably good agreement. For the seasonal variations, annual amplitudes of satellite altimetry and TG+GPS results are almost similar, while GRACE Mass+Steric results are a little smaller. The annual phases agree remarkably well for three independent techniques. The annual cycle is mainly driven by the steric contributions, while the annual phases of non-steric (mass component) sea level changes are almost a half year later than the steric sea level changes.