SMY和第21太阳周期间地磁及太阳活动特点的分析

本文比较第17—21太阳周黑子数、地磁A_p指数、各周极大年≥2级耀斑数、磁暴数及第一、二、三大磁暴情况;分析了≥2级耀斑数及磁暴的分布。21周3级耀斑对应磁暴比例低于19、20周,Ⅳ型及米波射电爆发是产生磁暴的重要条件。进一步分析了21周最大磁暴、最大射电爆发引起的磁暴,最严重的电离层短波通讯干扰及有明亮物质抛射的大耀斑、双带大耀斑引起的磁暴等典型例子。最后对SMY期间22个无黑子耀斑作了分析,它们可能引起中小幅度的磁暴。      

Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting

The support vector machine (SVM) combined with K-nearest neighbors (KNN), called the SVM-KNN method, is new classing algorithm that take the advantages of the SVM and KNN. This method is applied to the forecasting models for solar flares and proton events. For the solar flare forecasting model, the sunspot area, the sunspot magnetic class, and the McIntosh class of sunspot group and 10 cm solar radio flux are chosen as inputs; for the solar proton event forecasting model, the inputs include the longitude of active regions, the flux of soft X-ray, and those for the solar flare forecasting model. Detailed tests are implemented for both of the proposed forecasting models, in which the SVM-KNN and the SVM methods are compared. The testing results demonstrate that the SVM-KNN method provide a higher forecasting accuracy in contrast to the SVM. It also gives an increased rate of ‘Low’ prediction at the same time. The ‘Low’ prediction means occurrence of solar flares or proton events with predictions of non-occurrence. This method show promise for forecasting models of solar flare and proton events.     

Relationships of a growing magnetic flux region to flares

Some sites for solar flares are known to develop where new magnetic flux emerges and becomes abutted against opposite polarity pre-existing magnetic flux (review by Galzauskas/1/). We have identified and analyzed the evolution of such flare sites at the boundaries of a major new and growing magnetic flux region within a complex of active regions, Hale No. 16918. This analysis was done as a part of a continuing study of the circumstances associated with flares in Hale Region 16918, which was designated as an FBS target during the interval 18 – 23 June 1980. We studied the initiation and development of both major and minor flares in Hα images in relation to the identified potential flare sites at the boundaries of the growing flux region and to the general development of the new flux. This study lead to our recognition of a spectrum of possible relationships of growing flux regions to flares as follows: (1) intimate interaction with adjacent old flux — flare sites centered at new/old flux boundary, (2) forced or “intimidated” interaction in which new flux pushes old field having lower flux density towards a neighboring old polarity inversion line where a flare then takes place, (3) “influential” interaction — magnetic lines of force over an old polarity inversion line, typically containing a filament, reconnect to the new emerging flux; a flare occurs with erupting filament when the magnetic field overlying the filament becomes too weak to prevent its eruption, (4) inconsequential interaction — new flux region is too small or has wrong orientation for creating flare conditions, (5) incidental — flare occurs without any significant relationship to new flux regions.     

耀斑脉冲相离子电离的弛豫过程

观测表明:在耀斑前活动区上空的日冕中普遍存在低温的磁环结构, 其中一些这种磁环结构的温度在105K以下;同时, 耀斑脉冲相存在非常迅速的加热过程.本文在这些观测事实的基础上, 提出了一个太阳耀斑爆发时离子电离的模型, 并由这一模型研究了耀斑时离子电离的弛豫过程.在太阳宇宙线的源物质来自高色球层的条件下, 得到了与观测结果符合得较好的太阳耀斑能量离子的平均电荷及其电离态分布.      

基于PCA方法对太阳活动区主要参量的分析

太阳耀斑与太阳质子事件的发生通常与太阳活动区存在非常密切的关系, 对这种关系的深入分析有助于太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件预报模型的建立. 本文利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)方法对1997-2010年太阳质子事件所在活动区的主要参量进行分析, 选取的参量包括黑子磁分类、 McIntosh分类、太阳黑子群面积、10.7 cm射电流量、耀斑指数、质子耀斑位置和软X射线耀斑强度. 结果得到81个太阳活动主成分得分值排序(得分值代表每个事件的强弱), 与太阳质子事件峰值流量、太阳黑子年均值以及10.7 cm射电流量年均值的对比显示相似度非常高, 表明主成分得分值一定程度上可以反映太阳活动的强弱规律.      

Converging motion of conjugate flaring kernels during two large solar flares

In this paper, we analyze the footpoint motion of two large solar flares using observations made by the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) and Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). The two flares are the M5.7 flare of March 14, 2002 and the X10 flare of October 29, 2003. They are both classical two-ribbon flares as observed in TRACE 1600 or 171 Å images and have long-duration conjugate hard X-ray (HXR) footpoint emission. We use the ‘center-of-mass’ method to locate the centroids of the UV/EUV flare ribbons. The results are: (1) The conjugate UV/EUV ribbons and HXR footpoints of the two flares show a converging (inward) motion during the impulsive phase. For the two flares, the converging motion lasts about 3 and 10 min, respectively. The usual separation (outward) motion for the flare ribbons and footpoints take place only after the converging motion. (2) During the inward and the outward motion, the conjugate ribbons and footpoints of the two events exhibit a strong unshear motion. In obtaining above results, TRACE UV/EUV and RHESSI HXR data show an overall agreement. The two events demonstrate that the magnetic reconnection for the flares occurs in highly sheared magnetic field. Furthermore, the results support the magnetic model constructed by Ji et al. [Ji, H., Huang, G., Wang, H. Astrophys. J. 660, 893–900, 2007], who proposed that the contracting motion of flaring loops is the signature of the relaxation of sheared magnetic fields.     

Chromospheric line emission in seismically active flares

Some flares are known to drive seismic transients into the solar interior. The effects of these seismic transients are seen in helioseismic observations of the Sun’s surface thousands of km from their sources in the hour succeeding the impulsive phase of the flare. Energetic particles impinging from the corona into the chromosphere are known to drive strong, downward-propagating shocks in active region chromospheres during the impulsive phases of flares. H observations have served as an important diagnostic of these shocks, showing intense emission with characteristic transient redshifts. In most flares no detectable transients penetrate beneath the active region photosphere. In those that do, there is a strong correlation between compact white-light emission and the signature of seismic emission. This study introduces the first known H observations of acoustically active flares, centered in the core of the line. The morphology of line-core emission H in the impulsive phase of the flare is similar to that of co-spatial line-core emission in NaD₁, encompassing the site of seismic emission but more extended. The latter shows a compact red shift in the region of seismic emission, but a similar feature is known to appear in a conjugate magnetic footpoint from which no seismic emission emanates. Radiative MHD modelling based on the profiles of chromospheric line emission during the impulsive phases of flares can contribute significantly to our understanding of the mechanics of flare acoustic emission penetrating into the solar interior and the conditions under which it occurs.     

Distinctive spatial configuration of a class ofmicrowave flaring sources

We discuss a class of microwave flares whose source regions exhibit a distinctive spatial configuration; the primaryenergy release in these flares results from the interaction between emerging magnetic flux and an existing overlying region. Such events typically exhibit radio, X-ray and EUV emission at the main flare site (the site of interaction) and in addition radio emission at a remote site up to 1 × 10⁵ km away in another active region. We have identified and studied more than a dozen microwave flares in this class, in order to arrive at some general conclusions on reconnection and energy release in such solar flares. Typically, these flares show a gradual rise showing many subsidiary peaks in both radio and hard X-ray light curves with a quasi-oscillatory nature with periods of 5–6 seconds, a bright compact X-ray & EUV emitting loop in the main flare source, a delay of the radio emission from the remote source relative to the main X-ray-emitting source. The magnetic field in the main flare site changes sharply at the time of the flare, and the remote site appears to be magnetically connected to the main flare site.     

基于长短期记忆神经网络的太阳耀斑短期预报

提出了一个基于长短期记忆神经网络的耀斑预报模型,利用过去24 h太阳活动区的磁场变化时序构建样本,通过长短期记忆神经网络对磁场特征时序演化进行分析,预报未来48 h内是否发生≥M级别耀斑事件。使用的数据集为2010年5月到2017年5月所有活动区样本,选取了SDO/HMI SHARP的10个磁场特征参量。在建模过程中通过XGBoost方法选取权重、增益率和覆盖率均较高的6个特征参量作为输入参数。通过测试对比,模型的虚报率和准确率与传统机器学习模型相近,报准率和临界成功指数分别为0.7483和0.7402,优于传统机器学习模型。模型总体效果优于传统机器学习模型。      

Large-scale reconnection in a large flare

Some specific features of the large-scale magnetic reconnection in large solar flares are briefly reviewed. In particular, the large-scale structure and dynamics of the 3B/X5.7 flare on 14 July 2000 are interpreted in terms of the topological model. The role of the betatron effect in collapsing magnetic traps, that are created by reconnection in the solar corona, is considered. We discuss some possibilities to observe the collapsing trap acceleration in solar flares.     

Prediction and evaluation of solar particle events based on precursor information.

Protection from the radiation effects of solar particle events for deep space mission crews requires a warning system to observe solar flares and predict subsequent charged particle fluxes. Such a system relates precursor information observed in each flare to the intensity, delay, and duration of the subsequent Solar Particle Event (SPE) at other locations in the solar system. A warning system of this type is now in operation at the NOAA Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado for support of space missions. It has been used to predict flare particle fluxes at the earth for flares of Solar Cycle 22. The flare parameters used and the effectiveness of the current warning system, based on Solar Cycle 22 experience, are presented, with an examination of the shortcomings. Needed improvements to the system include more complete observations of solar activity, especially information on the occurrences of solar mass ejections; and consideration of the effects of propagation conditions in the solar corona and interplanetary medium. Requirements for solar observations and forecasting systems on board the spacecraft are discussed.     

Do all flares occur within a hierarchy of magnetic loops?

X-ray events observed by the Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer on the Solar Maximum Mission frequently indicate the following scenario for solar flares: The initial energy release occurs in a compact magnetic loop and during the impulsive phase may spread rapidly to involve a larger structure. In later phases the soft X-ray emission is from a much larger structure encompassing these initial features and, overlying them all is a huge loop with footpoints separated by up to several hundred thousand km. In the light of these observations, we believe a flare model involving a single magnetic loop is rarely, if ever appropriate.     

太阳质子耀斑的一个统计性质

本文研究太阳质子耀斑相对于太阳光球大尺度平均磁场中性线的分布, 给出一个新得到的质子耀斑的统计性质。研究太阳质子事件及其源耀斑的统计性质, 是太阳物理和空间物理学的重要前沿课题。从太阳活动预报及地球空间环境预报研究的角度看, 一个重要的问题是质子耀斑在      

From solar nanoflares to stellar giant flares: Scaling laws and non-implications for coronal heating

In this study we explore physical scaling laws applied to solar nanoflares, microflares, and large flares, as well as to stellar giant flares. Solar flare phenomena exhibit a fractal volume scaling, V(L)  L^1.9, with L being the flare loop length scale, which explains the observed correlation between the total emission measure EM_p and flare peak temperature T_p in both solar and stellar flares. However, the detected stellar flares have higher emission measures EM_p than solar flares at the same flare peak temperature T_p, which can be explained by a higher electron density that is caused by shorter heating scale height ratios s_H/L ≈ 0.04–0.1. Using these scaling laws we calculate the total radiated flare energies E_X and thermal flare energies E_T and find that the total counts C are a good proxy for both parameters. Comparing the energies of solar and stellar flares we find that even the smallest observed stellar flares exceed the largest solar flares, and thus their observed frequency distributions are hypothetically affected by an upper cutoff caused by the maximum active region size limit. The powerlaw slopes fitted near the upper cutoff can then not reliably be extrapolated to the microflare regime to evaluate their contribution to coronal heating.     

Study of ionospheric D region changes during solar flares using MF radar measurements

During solar flares, the X-ray radiation suddenly increases, resulting in an increase in the electron density of the atmospheric D region and a strong absorption of short-wave radio waves. Based on Langfang medium frequency (MF) radar, this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of D region in the lower ionosphere from 62 km to 82 km. The analysis focused on multiple C-level and M-level solar flare events before and after the large-scale flare event at 11:53 (UT) on September 6, 2017. The results show that it is difficult to detect the electron density over 70 km in Langfang during solar flares, but the electron density value can be obtained as low as 62 km, and the stronger the flare intensity, the lower the detectable electron density height. Besides, the equal electron density height, the received power of X and O waves will also be significantly reduced during the flares, and the reduction of equal electron density height has a weak linear relationship with flare intensity.     

A model of radiation conditions during spacecraft flights in the interplanetary space and in the Earth's magnetosphere.

Based on the available measurement data, simulations of radiation conditions during spacecraft flights in the interplanetary space and in the Earth's and Jupiter's radiation belts has been carried out. The > or = 10 MeV and > or = 30 MeV solar flare proton fluence forecast has been proposed for Cycle 22. Radiation conditions due to both magnetospheric electrons and protons and to solar flare protons, magnetic rigidity cutoff being taken into account, have been evaluated on spacecraft trajectories in the Earth's and Jupiter's magnetospheres.     

Modeling large solar flares

The basic ideas to model the large solar flares are reviewed and illustrated. Some fundamental properties of potential and non-potential fields in the solar atmosphere are recalled. In particular, we consider a classification of the non-potential fields or, more exactly, related electric currents, including reconnecting current layers. The so-called ‘rainbow reconnection’ model is presented with its properties and predictions. This model allows us to understand main features of large flares in terms of reconnection. We assume that in the two-ribbon flares, like the Bastille-day flare, the magnetic separatrices are involved in a large-scale shear photospheric flow in the presence of reconnecting current layers generated by a converging flow.     

Where will efficient energy release occur in 3-D magnetic configurations?

The energy needed to power flares is thought to be stored in the coronal magnetic field. However, the energy release is efficient only at very small scales. Magnetic configurations with a complex topology, i.e. with separatrices, are the most obvious configurations where current sheets can form, and then, reconnection can efficiently occur. This has been confirmed for several flares computing the coronal field and comparing the locations of the flare loops and ribbons to the deduced 3-D magnetic topology. However, this view is too restrictive taking into account the variety of observed solar flaring configurations. Indeed, “Quasi-Separatrix Layers” (QSLs), which are regions where there is a drastic change in field-line linkage, generalize the definition of separatrices. They let us understand where reconnection occurs in a broader variety of flares than separatrices do. The strongest electric field and current are generated at, or close to where the QSLs are thinnest. This defines the region where particle acceleration can efficiently occur. A new feature of 3-D reconnection is the natural presence of fast field-line slippage along the QSLs, a process called “slip-running reconnection”. This is a plausible origin for the motions of the X-ray sources along flare ribbons.     

Detection of solar neutrons on a long duration balloon flight

The observation of large solar flares on high altitude balloons requires long duration balloon flights because large flares are infrequent and cannot be predicted with enough reliability and lead time to allow a conventional balloon to be launched and reach altitude before the flare occurs. With the many weeks at float altitude expected for a long duration flight, the probability of “catching” a large flare during solar maximum becomes reasonably high and the study of phenomena which heretofore have required a satellite become accessible to a balloon platform. One example of this type of experiment is the observation of neutrons produced by the interaction of flare accelerated nucleons with the solar atmosphere. Because the neutrons are produced immediately by the flare accelerated particles and are unaffected by their transmission through the upper solar atmosphere and the intervening magnetic fields, their observation at 1 A.U. will provide direct information on the flare acceleration process. Specifically, a measurement of the neutron energy and time spectra will yield the energy spectrum of the charged nucleons in the interval 50 to 500 MeV/amu, the charged particle anisotropy, the height of the acceleration region for limb flares, and information on the two-stage acceleration process. Because the γ-ray spectrum is also sensitive to these factors, a combined neutron and γ-ray measurement will provide a much more stringent test of flare models than either done separately. CWRU and the University of Melbourne have designed the EOSCOR (Extended Observation of Solar and Cosmic Radiation) detector to have the necessary sensitivity to detect neutrons from a flare 0.1 the size of the 4 Aug. 1972 event and to be compatible with the constraints of the long duration balloon system. The detector has been test flown on short duration balloon flights and calibrated at E_n = 38, 58, and 118 MeV. It is planned to launch it on a long duration balloon flight from Australia in December 1982 when simultaneous γ-ray observations will be possible with the SMM and/or HINTORI satellites.     

北京和东北地区雷暴与太阳活动的关系

太阳活动对于大气电性能可能会产生影响,而大气电性能在雷暴形成过程中可能会起着重要作用.因此,太阳活动对于大气电性能的影响,最终将有可能影响到雷暴的形成.本文用1957年到1978年北京地区和东北地区的10个气象站的13000多个雷暴资料,用时序迭加法分析了雷暴数与太阳磁扇形界面通过、太阳耀斑及太阳黑子11年周期变化等的关系.结果表明,有些年分的雷暴数当行星际磁场方向由指向太阳变为离开太阳的磁扇形界面扫过地球时有相关影响,在界面通过前后3天内或7天后雷暴数明显增大.从季节来看,上半年的界面通过比下半年的界面通过对雷暴的影响大.在各种太阳耀斑分类统计分析中,看到出现在日面上西区特别是西一区(0°-30°)的耀斑对雷暴的影响显著.雷暴数与太阳黑子11年周期变化则没有很显著的相关关系.