有关地磁暴的若干问题

问：地磁暴是什么原因引起的？答：太阳正处于11年活动周期的高峰期。这就意味着太阳表面活跃着相当数量的可见黑子。太阳黑子看起来像太阳的雀斑。实际上是太阳表面强烈的磁场活动的区域。这些黑子群能成为耀斑爆发和日冕物质抛射的来源。其中日冕物质抛射即太阳日冕中的带电粒子瞬时向外喷射的现象。     

基于SDO/HMI全日面实时磁图的活动区自动识别

太阳活动区是太阳活动的主要发生源区，活动区的形态、结构、特征是预报太阳爆发的主要依据.因此，活动区的识别是实现太阳爆发预报的前提.SDO/HMI能够提供连续、高时空精度的全日面光球观测图像.参照文献[1]SOHO/MDI综合磁图中活动区的自动识别方法，利用实时可得的HMI全日面磁图，通过阈值法、数学形态法和区域增长法相结合的方式，开展了活动区的快速自动识别研究.将2010—2018年的自动识别结果与NOAA/SWPC每日发布的活动区结果进行比较发现:通过磁图自动识别的活动区数目与SWPC活动区数目整体变化趋势基本一致，两者的相关系数为0.87；从活动区整体标识的数目上来看，通过磁图自动识别的活动区数目少于SWPC发布的结果.未被自动标识的活动区主要为面积小、磁场弱且磁类型简单的活动区，引发太阳爆发的可能性极小，因此不会对太阳爆发的实际预报产生影响.本文的研究方法和结果能够为太阳活动预报提供实时的活动区数据，加速太阳爆发预报模型的实际应用.      

基于PCA方法对太阳活动区主要参量的分析

太阳耀斑与太阳质子事件的发生通常与太阳活动区存在非常密切的关系, 对这种关系的深入分析有助于太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件预报模型的建立. 本文利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)方法对1997-2010年太阳质子事件所在活动区的主要参量进行分析, 选取的参量包括黑子磁分类、 McIntosh分类、太阳黑子群面积、10.7 cm射电流量、耀斑指数、质子耀斑位置和软X射线耀斑强度. 结果得到81个太阳活动主成分得分值排序(得分值代表每个事件的强弱), 与太阳质子事件峰值流量、太阳黑子年均值以及10.7 cm射电流量年均值的对比显示相似度非常高, 表明主成分得分值一定程度上可以反映太阳活动的强弱规律.      

太阳黑子对人类的影响

２０００年３月初 ,太阳表面出现“黑斑” ,许多人用肉眼就可以直接观测到这一奇特的自然现象 ,这就是太阳黑子。“黑斑”的出现 ,表明太阳活动又进入了一个新的高峰期。这一次太阳出现了两群大黑子 ,每个黑子群的面积都远远超过地球。太阳活动周期为１１ ２年 ,活动高峰期太阳黑子集中爆发 ,大约持续两三年。科学家们预测 ,这一轮高峰期将由２０００年３月持续到２００２年左右。我国早在两千多年前的秦汉时期就观测到太阳黑子 ,并存有世界上最早的有关太阳黑子的记录。早在公元前１４０年前后成书的《淮南子·精神训》篇中就有“日中有蹲…     

太阳进入活动高峰期了吗?

前一段时间一些媒体报道了１９９９年太阳活动将进入高峰期，如有一条消息引述国内外专家的预测称：届时可能引发通信卫星故障、电网漏电、干扰无线电广播等不可预料的结果。果真会如此吗？中科院北京天文台的权威专家最近指出：这一预测不够科学，１９９９年太阳不会进入活动高峰期。太阳活动的强弱一般以黑子多寡为标志。太阳黑子是太阳炽热表面上相对温度较低、颜色较为暗淡的斑点。太阳黑子的增多，太阳上耀斑等爆发活动也随之活跃和增多。它们以每小时上百万千米的速度向外辐射和喷射高能粒子流，从而对地球环境带来一定的影响。天文学…     

1986年2月太阳的高活动I活动区4711的演化和特征

本文使用太阳黑子、磁场、Hα色球、10.7cm射电及软X射线流量等观测资料,对太阳活动谷期的高活动区4711(SESC编号)从光球、色球和日冕三个方面做了综述.指出该活动区演化过程的特征是:(1)黑子群在主要发展阶段呈一个紧密的结构复杂的强磁区;(2)两次大的太阳爆发均发生在黑子群面积衰减阶段的初期;(3)黑子群的转动可能是活动区日冕加热和耀斑活动的主要供能机制;(4)色球暗条的频繁活动是爆发的先兆;(5) 10.7cm射电辐射和软X射线辐射的逐日流量有彼此不重合的双峰.      

太阳黑子自动识别与特征参量自动提取

日面上黑子数目反映了太阳活动水平的高低.黑子形态的复杂性和磁场的非势性与太阳活动爆发密切相关.随着高时空精度的太阳观测数据量的急剧增长，快速准确地自动识别日面上的黑子以及对黑子群特征自动提取已成为太阳活动预报的现实需求.本文针对SDO/HMI的活动区白光数据，利用数学形态法开展黑子自动识别研究，并在黑子识别基础上对黑子群的面积和黑子数进行了计算.通过对利用2011-2017年HMI活动区数据计算得到的黑子群面积和黑子数与NOAA/SWPC发布的活动区相应参量进行比较，发现本文计算结果与SWPC发布数据的变化趋势基本一致，相关性较好.其中黑子群面积的相关系数为0.77，黑子数的相关系数为0.79.研究结果表明，利用本文方法对SDO/HMI数据进行处理，能够得到高时间分辨率的黑子群特征参量，可为太阳活动预报提供及时准确的输入.      

太阳活动对电离层TEC变化影响分析ormalsize

为研究太阳活动对电离层TEC变化的影响,从整体到局部分析了2000—2016年的太阳黑子数、太阳射电流量F_10.7指数日均值与电离层TEC的关系,并重点分析了2017年9月6日太阳爆发X9.3级特大耀斑前后15天太阳活动与电离层TEC变化的相关性.结果表明:由2000—2016年的数据整体看来,太阳黑子数、太阳F_10.7指数、TEC两两之间具有很强的整体相关性,但局部相关性强弱不均;此次耀斑爆发前后太阳黑子数、太阳F_10.7指数和TEC具有很强的正相关特性,太阳活动对TEC的影响时延约为2天;太阳活动对全球电离层TEC的影响不同步,从高纬至低纬约有1天的延迟,且对低纬度的影响远大于中高纬度.太阳活动是影响电离层TEC变化的主要原因,但局部也可能存在其他重要影响因素.      

太阳黑子的纤维结构

本文采用文献[1]所发展的方法求解非轴对称磁静平衡方程,以解释太阳黑子的纤维结构。结果表明,在黑子半影区中的暗纤维对应着强磁场区。      

第24太阳活动周地球附近磁云与非磁云事件的统计分析

为研究第24太阳活动周中磁云（Magnetic Clouds,MC）与非磁云（Non-Magnetic Clouds,non-MC）的等离子体性质及其对空间天气的影响,使用1AU处的观测数据对2008-2015年168个ICME事件进行统计与分析,其中认证出磁云事件68个,占总数的40.48%.通过分析磁云与非磁云等离子体参数对空间天气环境的影响及与太阳活动的关系,整体性质的对比及在第23和24太阳活动周中性质的对比,可以发现:在第24太阳周中,磁云引起的磁暴强度普遍大于非磁云,南北向磁场分量是引起磁暴的重要参数;磁云数和太阳黑子数有很好的相关性,非磁云数与行星际日冕物质抛射总数及黑子数的相关性稍弱,磁云数在太阳周的不同阶段表现出不同的分布特性;磁云的磁场强度和南向磁场分量整体强于非磁云,两者质子温度、密度等参数差异不大.第24周磁云事件引起的地磁效应整体上弱于第23周磁云事件,这与第24周磁云事件最大南向磁场分量、传播速度以及质子温度整体小于第23周磁云事件有关.      

Research Progress of Interplanetary Physics in Mainland China

Significant progress has been made by Chinese scientists in research of interplanetary physics during the recent two years (2018-2020). These achievements are reflected at least in the following aspects:Activities in solar corona and lower solar atmosphere; solar wind and turbulence; filament/prominence, jets, flares, and radio bursts; active regions and solar eruptions; coronal mass ejections and their interplanetary counterparts; other interplanetary structures; space weather prediction methods; magnetic reconnection; Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical modeling; solar energetic particles, cosmic rays, and Forbush decreases; machine learning methods in space weather and other aspects. More than one hundred and forty papers in the academic journals have been published in these research directions. These fruitful achievements are obtained by Chinese scholars in solar physics and space physics either independently or through international collaborations. They greatly improve people's understanding of solar activities, solar eruptions, the corresponding space weather effects, and the Sun-Earth relations. Here we will give a very brief review on the research progress. However, it must be pointed out that this paper may not completely cover all achievements in this field due to our limited knowledge.      

Temporal variation and asymmetry of sunspot and solar plage types from 1930 to 1936

Using the recently converted to digital format heliophysics catalogues of the Ebro Observatory published in the 1930s, we analyse simultaneously the temporal variation and asymmetry of two different solar structures located at different layers of the solar atmosphere: sunspots and solar plages. In particular, we do the research for all the types of sunspots and plages, including the daily and relative frequencies over the solar cycle. The data were catalogued using the sunspot Cortie classification and a solar plage classification scheme proposed by the Ebro Observatory, which group the phenomena by size and shape. For all types of both sunspots and plages, we observe a decrease in their frequency up to the end of solar cycle 16 and an increase over the beginning of solar cycle 17. Furthermore, we note that small sunspot groups are more likely to happen than bigger groups, although single big spots dominate near the solar minimum. The daily frequency of solar plage occurrences shows that there is not a dominance of compact or scattered solar plages. The North-South occurrence distribution of every type in both sunspots and solar plages shows an asymmetry during the solar cycle: in its declining phase, such asymmetry is directed to the north, while in the beginning of a new cycle is directed to the south.     

太阳活动区EUV图像的生成式模型耀斑分级与预报

近年来,不断发射的空基观测台持续传送回海量日面图像及日地间气象数据,为采用人工智能技术对太阳活动进行预报预警提供了数据基础。但是,极端天气爆发少,样本量较少;中等程度爆发稍多,样本量较多;常规无爆发天气常见,样本较为集中,样本不均衡状况严重影响机器学习方法在空间天气领域的广泛应用。本文面向多源多通道多尺度日面图像信息,构建了来自SOHO和SDO的1996-2015年日面活动区图像数据集;针对数据分布的不平衡,对太阳活动区图像作耀斑分级与预报。在对比分析元学习算法的基础上,设计了结合分类头设计和卷积核初始化的生成式模型;在使网络轻量化的基础上,能够将M和X级耀斑预报的检测率指标相较于普通的深度学习模型和无监督度量式模型分别提升10%和7%。     

Solar flares: an overview.

This is a survey of solar phenomena and physical models that may be useful for improving forecasts of solar flares and proton storms in interplanetary space. Knowledge of the physical processes that accelerate protons has advanced because of gamma-ray and X-ray observations from the Solar Maximum Mission telescopes. Protons are accelerated at the onset of flares, but the duration of any subsequent proton storm at 1 AU depends on the structure of the interplanetary fields. X-ray images of the solar corona show possible fast proton escape paths. Magnetographs and high-resolution visible-band images show the magnetic field structure near the acceleration region and the heating effects of sunward-directed protons. Preflare magnetic field growth and shear may be the most important clues to the physical processes that generate high energy solar particles. Any dramatic improvement in flare forecasts will require high resolution solar telescopes in space. Several possibilities for improvements in the art of flare forecasting are presented, among them: the use of acoustic tomography to probe for subsurface magnetic fields; a satellite-borne solar magnetograph; and an X-ray telescope to monitor the corona for eruptions.     

Active region properties and irradiance variations

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has been measured for more than three decades. These observations demonstrate that total irradiance changes on time scales ranging from minutes to years and decades. Considerable efforts have been made to understand the physical origin of irradiance variations and to model the observed changes using measures of sunspots and faculae. In this paper, we study the short-term variations in TSI during the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 22 and the rising portion of cycle 23 (1993–1998). This time interval of low solar activity allows us to study the effect of individual sunspot groups on TSI in detail. In this paper, we indicate that the effect of sunspot groups on total irradiance may depend on their type in the Zürich classification system and/or their evolution, and on their magnetic configuration. Some uncertainties in the data and other effects are also discussed.     

Solar flare forecasting model supported with artificial neural network techniques

Nowadays operational models for solar activity forecasting are still based on the statistical relationship between solar activity and solar magnetic field evolution. In order to set up this relationship, many parameters have been proposed to be the measures. Conventional measures are based on the sunspot group classification which provides limited information from sunspots. For this reason, new measures based on solar magnetic field observations are proposed and a solar flare forecasting model supported with an artificial neural network is introduced. This model is equivalent to a person with a long period of solar flare forecasting experience.     

SMY和第21太阳周期间地磁及太阳活动特点的分析

本文比较第17—21太阳周黑子数、地磁A_p指数、各周极大年≥2级耀斑数、磁暴数及第一、二、三大磁暴情况;分析了≥2级耀斑数及磁暴的分布。21周3级耀斑对应磁暴比例低于19、20周,Ⅳ型及米波射电爆发是产生磁暴的重要条件。进一步分析了21周最大磁暴、最大射电爆发引起的磁暴,最严重的电离层短波通讯干扰及有明亮物质抛射的大耀斑、双带大耀斑引起的磁暴等典型例子。最后对SMY期间22个无黑子耀斑作了分析,它们可能引起中小幅度的磁暴。      

行星际磁场的螺旋扇形过渡区

从行星际磁场的大尺度螺旋形构型和扇形边界附近太阳风流动与冕旒的可能相关,本文得到一个推论,即在行星际空间可能存在一种较厚的螺旋扇形过渡区。行星际磁场和太阳风的实地观测证实了这种较厚的螺旋扇形过渡区的存在。在所分析的45个螺旋扇形过渡区中,磁场强度都不为零;大部分大于或小于周围平均场强。本文进一步分析了磁增大和磁减小两类过渡区中的物理性质和可能成因。