Is the North Atlantic Oscillation modulated by solar and lunar cycles? Some evidences from Hurst autocorrelation analysis

Several studies have suggested that the Sun and Moon cycles affect the Earth climatic dynamics. Nevertheless, there is a long-standing controversy whether solar variability and tides can significantly generate climate change, and how this may occur. Spectral analysis of climatic indices has provided only indirect evidences of the effects of solar–tidal periodicities in the Earth climate. This work addresses the issue by considering the dynamics of the daily North Atlantic Oscillation index over the period from 1950 to 2009. In contrast to previous studies, this work proposes that external cycles can be detected in the autocorrelation dynamics rather than in the raw North Atlantic Oscillation index series. Here, the R/S-scaling analysis is used to quantify, via the so-called Hurst exponent, the presence of autocorrelations along the studied years. Fourier analysis scan of the autocorrelation series thus show two prominent spectral components near (±3%) the lunar tidal 4.425 and the solar 11 years cycles. Intermediate spectral components near 6.4, 7.75 and 8.9 years are proposed to be, at least partially, a result of energy capture from internal mechanisms into cycles resulting from the nonlinear resonance of the fundamental solar–tidal cycles. The dominant effect of the solar variability is clarified by showing that in about 70% of the studied period the sunspot number and the Hurst exponent phases are synchronized, indicating that a higher solar activity enhances the North Atlantic Oscillation index predictability.     

Isotopic record in a marine shallow-water core: Imprint of solar centennial cycles in the past 2 millennia

The δ¹³C profile of Globigerinoides ruber, measured in the GT90/3 shallow-water Ionian sea core and dated with high precision, is presented and analyzed using the Singular Spectrum Analysis and the Wavelet Transform. This time series covers the period 200–1979 AD, with a resolution of 3.87 years. The δ¹³C of foraminifera depends on the photosynthetic activity of the symbiontic algae living on the shells, strictly related to the illumination of the sea-surface. Both spectral methods, besides an 11-years oscillation in phase with the Schwabe cycle of the solar activity, show the presence of a centennial cycle that is in phase with the amplitude modulation of the sunspot number series in the last 300 years.Moreover, another climatic record, the tree ring δ¹³C of a Japanese cedar covering the time interval 125–1952 AD, shows a similar centennial oscillation and therefore suggests that this climatic variation is global and in phase with the solar activity.     

Study of the influence of solar variability on a regional (Indian) climate: 1901–2007

We use Indian temperature data of more than 100 years to study the influence of solar activity on climate. We study the Sun–climate relationship by averaging solar and climate data at various time scales; decadal, solar activity and solar magnetic cycles. We also consider the minimum and maximum values of sunspot number (SSN) during each solar cycle. This parameter SSN is correlated better with Indian temperature when these data are averaged over solar magnetic polarity epochs (SSN maximum to maximum). Our results indicate that the solar variability may still be contributing to ongoing climate change and suggest for more investigations.     

基于小波与交叉小波分析的太阳黑子与宇宙线相关性研究

利用小波分析和交叉小波分析方法, 根据太阳黑子数以及Huancayo和Climax两个测站的月均宇宙线数据, 分析了两个测站的月均宇宙线周期变化, 同时利用太阳黑子数R₁₂对Climax站宇宙线流量进行预测研究. 小波分析结果表明, 太阳黑子与宇宙线除存在显著的11年周期外, 太阳活动高年期间还存在1～6个月尺度的周期特性, 在第22太阳周活动高年时还出现了6～8和1～22个月的变化周期; 交叉小波分析结果表明, 在130个月左右的周期上宇宙线与太阳黑子具有显著的负相关性, 并且宇宙线的变化滞后太阳黑子约8个月; 分别采用预测时刻和8个月前的太阳黑子数, 预测相对误差为3.8912%和3.2386%. 本文方法同样适用于估算其他空间天气参量之间的周期和相关性, 提高各种空间天气参量的预测或预报精度.      

A study on possible solar and geomagnetic effects on the precipitation over northwestern Argentina

The precipitation over Tucuman (26.8°S; 65.2°W), which is representative of the Northwestern region of Argentina, is analyzed in search of an association with solar and geomagnetic activity, with the purpose of contributing to the controversial issue on the connection between climate variation and anthropogenic vs. natural forcing. Monthly time series of precipitation, sunspot number (Rz), and aa index were used for the period 1884–2010. A wavelet analysis was performed first which, due to the time series length, shows significant results only for periodicities lower than 32 years. Due to the transient character and non-constant phase of the results, any sustained wavelet coherence between precipitation and either sunspots or aa could be noticed. Moving averages and correlations were also assessed. The 11 and 22-year running mean of precipitation is positively correlated to Rz and aa when the whole period of analysis is considered. However, a shift in the long-term behavior of precipitation is noticed around 1940, which implies different correlation values with Rz and aa when the period before or after this year are considered. The solar cycle length is also considered for this statistical study and partly confirms the results obtained with Rz and aa. We propose plausible physical explanations based on geomagnetic activity and total solar irradiance effects over atmospheric circulation that could support the statistical result. A deeper analysis and broader geographical coverage is needed in order to detect a connection between precipitation and solar variability discernible from greenhouse gases effects. We emphasize the idea of the importance of recognizing and quantifying the different forcing acting on precipitation (or any other climate parameter), which sometimes can be barely evident from a solely statistical analysis.     

Solar activity and El-Niño signals observed in Brazil and Chile tree ring records

This work presents a review of the results obtained by research on solar–terrestrial relationships developed by analyzing tree growth rings from Southern Brazil and Chile. These studies were performed using harmonic spectral and wavelet analysis. The time interval covered by the samples is 200 yr for Brazil and 2500 yr for Chile. It was observed that sample trees from Southern Brazil are showing a ring growth response favorable to the increase of solar activity. Although periodicities associated to the 11 yr solar cycle were observed in sample trees from Chile, this relation was not so favorable as in Brazilian trees. However, Chile tree ring widths have a much better response to low period, which indicates that they are more adequate to study El Niño events environmental variations than those from Brazil.     

太阳活动对电离层TEC变化影响分析ormalsize

为研究太阳活动对电离层TEC变化的影响,从整体到局部分析了2000—2016年的太阳黑子数、太阳射电流量F_10.7指数日均值与电离层TEC的关系,并重点分析了2017年9月6日太阳爆发X9.3级特大耀斑前后15天太阳活动与电离层TEC变化的相关性.结果表明:由2000—2016年的数据整体看来,太阳黑子数、太阳F_10.7指数、TEC两两之间具有很强的整体相关性,但局部相关性强弱不均;此次耀斑爆发前后太阳黑子数、太阳F_10.7指数和TEC具有很强的正相关特性,太阳活动对TEC的影响时延约为2天;太阳活动对全球电离层TEC的影响不同步,从高纬至低纬约有1天的延迟,且对低纬度的影响远大于中高纬度.太阳活动是影响电离层TEC变化的主要原因,但局部也可能存在其他重要影响因素.      

太阳活动变化分析

利用Morlet小波变换方法对太阳黑子相对数进行了分析,对太阳活动变化得出了一些有意义的结果.太阳活动存在10.7 a和101 a的变化周期,以10.7 a周期最为显著.太阳活动强弱变化存在一定的阶段性,在1950年发生了气候突变,之后太阳活动明显加强,未来一段时间太阳活动较弱.      

Total solar irradiance and climate

The solar radiation is the fundamental source of energy that drives the Earth’s climate and sustains life. The variability of this output certainly affects our planet. In the last two decades an enormous advance in the understanding of the variability of the solar irradiance has been achieved. Space-based measurements indicate that the total solar irradiance changes at various time scales, from minutes to the solar cycle.Climate models show that total solar irradiance variations can account for a considerable part of the temperature variation of the Earth’s atmosphere in the pre-industrial era. During the 20th century its relative influence on the temperature changes has descended considerably. This means that other sources of solar activity as well as internal and man-made causes are contributing to the Earth’s temperature variability, particularly the former in the 20th century.Some very challenging questions concerning total solar irradiance variations and climate have been raised: are total solar irradiance variations from cycle to cycle well represented by sunspot and facular changes? Does total solar irradiance variations always parallel the solar activity cycle? Is there a long-term variation of the total solar irradiance, and closely related to this, is the total solar irradiance output of the quiet sun constant? If there is not a long-term trend of total solar irradiance variations, then we need amplifying mechanisms of total solar irradiance to account for the good correlations found between total solar irradiance and climate. The latter because the observed total solar irradiance changes are inconsequential when introduced in present climate models.     

太阳黑子数及Ap指数周期变化特征的小波分析

应用Morlet小波变换方法从多个变化尺度上对1932—2000年的太阳黑子数及Ap指数的变化特征进行分析．(1)太阳黑子数存在准11年、准32年的周期变化特征及Ap指数存在准32年、准11年、准6个月、准27天和准13．9天的周期变化特征；(2)太阳黑子数及Ap指数有着相似的准11年周期变化，但Ap指数极值的出现要比太阳黑子数极值出现滞后1—2年；(3)Ap指数准27天的周期变化在太阳黑子活动高、低年不同，在太阳活动低年，Ap指数有着较稳定的准27天周期变化，但在太阳活动高年，27天的周期变化几乎消失，这种周期变化的消失和出现时间可在Morlet小波变换图中体现出来。     

太阳黑子自动识别与特征参量自动提取

日面上黑子数目反映了太阳活动水平的高低.黑子形态的复杂性和磁场的非势性与太阳活动爆发密切相关.随着高时空精度的太阳观测数据量的急剧增长，快速准确地自动识别日面上的黑子以及对黑子群特征自动提取已成为太阳活动预报的现实需求.本文针对SDO/HMI的活动区白光数据，利用数学形态法开展黑子自动识别研究，并在黑子识别基础上对黑子群的面积和黑子数进行了计算.通过对利用2011-2017年HMI活动区数据计算得到的黑子群面积和黑子数与NOAA/SWPC发布的活动区相应参量进行比较，发现本文计算结果与SWPC发布数据的变化趋势基本一致，相关性较好.其中黑子群面积的相关系数为0.77，黑子数的相关系数为0.79.研究结果表明，利用本文方法对SDO/HMI数据进行处理，能够得到高时间分辨率的黑子群特征参量，可为太阳活动预报提供及时准确的输入.      

Relationship between daily variation of cosmogenic nuclide Be-7 concentration in atmosphere and solar activities

Daily Be-7 concentrations in air at the height of 15 m are continuously observed at 38°15.2′N, 140°20.9′E, between 2000 and 2001. The average concentration and the relative standard deviation were 4.0 mBq/m³ and 50% in 2000–2001, respectively. The Be-7 concentrations increased 2.5% with the decrease in the sunspot numbers by 6.7% for the term of two years. From the power spectral analysis, the periodicity of 26 days is shown for the daily Be-7 concentrations. The folding analysis indicates that the time variation of the Be-7 concentration is similar to that of the ground-based neutron counting rate, and the phase delay for the minimum portion of Be-7 concentration was roughly 8 days to the maximum sunspot number. These results indicate that the Be-7 concentrations in the air at ground level have 26 day periodicity as a component of time variations and the time variation is caused by the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays, which corresponds to the variation of the sunspot number due to the rotation of the sun.     

Solar radiation variability in the last 1400 years recorded in the carbon isotope ratio of a mediterranean sea core

We present measurements and data analysis of the carbon stable isotopes (δ¹³C) in the planktonic Globigerinoides ruber extracted from the GT90/3 shallow water Ionian sea core, dated with high precision. It is commonly accepted that δ¹³C variations in symbiontic foraminifera mainly record the effects of productivity and of photosynthetic activity, varying with the ambient light level. Therefore from this time series we can deduce information on the sea surface illumination at the time of the planktonic foraminifera growth. The profile (359 points) covers the period 590–1979 AD, with a resolution of 3.87 years and it is an extension of the time series (215 points) previously published in this journal. The spectral analysis of the longer time series confirms the presence of the 11 y signal, with amplitude 0.08‰ (peak-to-trough), found in the shorter time series in phase with the sunspot solar cycle; furthermore it shows the presence of two centennial cycles of 100 and 200 years, with amplitude 0.08‰ and 0.02‰ respectively. These components are identified at high significance level by Monte Carlo singular spectrum analysis (MC-SSA). A comparison between the δ¹³C profile and the historical aurorae series (600–1500 AD) shows that the long-term δ¹³C variations are at least partially generated by the solar activity modulation and in phase with the solar output, as represented by the solar wind interaction with the magnetosphere.     

Irradiance models

Measurements of solar irradiance have revealed variations at all the sampled time scales (ranging from minutes to the length of the solar cycle). One important task of models is to identify the causes of the observed (total and spectral) irradiance variations. Another major aim is to reconstruct irradiance over time scales longer than sampled by direct measurements in order to consider if and to what extent solar irradiance variations may be responsible for global climate change. Here, we describe recent efforts to model solar irradiance over the current and the previous two solar cycles. These irradiance models are remarkably successful in reproducing the observed total and spectral irradiance, although further improvements are still possible.     

What is the optimum solar proxy for long-term ionospheric investigations?

The problem of optimum solar proxy is important for long-term and/or climatological studies of ionospheric parameters. Here we focus on possibly different optimum solar proxies for different ionospheric parameters, as they are affected by partly different spectral ranges of solar ionizing radiation. We use yearly average values of foF2 and foE of four European stations with long (1976–2014) and high-quality data (Juliusruh, Pruhonice, Rome, Slough/Chilton), and the global total electron content (G-TEC). Four solar proxies are used: F10.7, Mg II, solar Lymna-alpha flux Fα and sunspot numbers. The most important finding is that the optimum solar proxies are different for different ionospheric parameters. The most suitable solar proxy for foF2 is found to be Mg II, whereas for foE F10.7 evidently outperforms Mg II. Fα and sunspot numbers perform slightly worse but none of four solar proxies performs poorly. F10.7 is favored for G-TEC, to some extent surprisingly, as previous results favored rather Mg II.     

Even–odd cycle parity in complexity of hemispheric sunspot activity

We have used the Lempel–Ziv measure to describe the complexity in sunspot activity during the solar cycles 18–23. In particular, we examined the time series of daily sunspot numbers in the northern and southern hemispheres in each of the six cycles and calculated the Lempel–Ziv complexity (LZC) value for each time series. Our results indicate that in the even cycles, the LZC values of the sunspot numbers in the two hemispheres are very close to each other, whereas in the odd cycles they differ significantly between the two hemispheres. We also find that within each hemisphere the LZC varies from cycle to cycle. This even–odd cycle parity reflects the variations in inter-hemispheric strengths of the solar magnetic field leading to different temporal distributions of sunspots in the two hemispheres. The degree of complexity may influence the predictability of sunspot activity in the two hemispheres during the various cycles. Although the physical implication of the results is not clear, these results may stimulate new ideas into modeling the complex dynamics of the solar dynamo.     

Which solar EUV indices are best for reconstructing the solar EUV irradiance?

The solar EUV irradiance is of key importance for space weather. Most of the time, however, surrogate quantities such as EUV indices have to be used by lack of continuous and spectrally resolved measurements of the irradiance. The ability of such proxies to reproduce the irradiance from different solar atmospheric layers is usually investigated by comparing patterns of temporal correlations. We consider instead a statistical approach. The TIMED/SEE experiment, which has been continuously operating since February 2002, allows for the first time to compare in a statistical manner the EUV spectral irradiance to five EUV proxies: the sunspot number, the f10.7, Ca K, and Mg II indices, and the He I equivalent width.     

Solar radiometry: Spectral irradiance measurements

The present measurement accuracy of the solar spectral irradiance is insufficient to derive the real long-term solar spectral irradiance variability at all wavelengths. Possible error sources are discussed. A series of new second generation solar irradiance photometers are now under construction which should considerably improve these measurements. At the same time, efforts are made to improve the absolute UV calibration methods to derive a unified UV radiation scale.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

中等磁暴太阳周分布的统计研究

依据实际观测的中等磁暴数据,统计分析了中等磁暴的太阳周分布.分析结果表明,在一个太阳活动周内,每年中等磁暴随时间的变化出现多个峰值,其中,最大峰值均出现在太阳活动周的下降段,即中等磁暴的峰值比太阳黑子数平滑年均值的峰值要滞后,滞后的时间为2～3年.超过70%的中等磁暴出现在太阳活动周的下降段,这表明绝大多数中等磁暴出现在太阳活动周的下降段.通过对中等磁暴平滑月均值与太阳黑子数平滑月均值相位差的计算分析发现,中等磁暴峰值出现的时间比太阳黑子数峰值出现的时间要滞后,不同太阳活动周中等磁暴峰值出现的时间与太阳黑子数峰值时间滞后的程度不同.