The Investigation of Possible Approaches of Cataloged Space Objects to Manned Spacecraft

Initial orbital parameter errors are used to examine the miss distance between a spacecraft and an ensemble of tracked objects by a Monte Carlo-type analysis. The radial separation between orbits is evaluated and a keep-out zone is determined, which reduces the risk of collision to an acceptable level.An operational prediction methodology is suggested based on a catalog database, which identifies potentially hazardous approaches and computes the probability of collision for selected spacecraft. An example for the Mir Space Station is presented, which estimates the collision probability and the cross-sectional flux of cataloged objects for the time frame of interest. The results appear to be in good agreement with those of other space debris models.     

Tether Satellite System Collision Study

A study was performed to determine the probability of collision with resident space objects and untrackable debris for the tether component of the Tethered Satellite System (TSS) after it broke away from the Space Shuttle orbiter (mission STS-75) in February 1996. Both an analytical and a numerical approach were used in this study, and the results obtained with these two methods were found to be in good agreement. These results show that the deployed tether is expected to have been impacted by several particles 0.1mm or larger in size. The probability of collision with objects 10cm in size or larger was on the order of 10^–3 per month. Since the severed tether reentered within one month after deployment, the collision hazard to other objects while in orbit was small. The analytical methods used in this study are useful for tether collision evaluations in general.     

基于显式表达式的空间目标最大碰撞概率分析

最大碰撞概率的计算在空间目标碰撞风险评估中具有重要意义。基于碰撞概率的显式 表达式,利用一元函数和二元函数求极值的方法分别讨论了目标误差椭球形状固定和不定两 种情况下最大碰撞概率的计算方法,得到了两种情况下最大碰撞概率的表达式。对于误差椭 球形状固定的情况得到了碰撞概率最大时两目标位置协方差的取值,对于误差椭球不定情况 得到了碰撞概率最大时径向联合方差的取值和水平面内联合方差所满足的关系。分析了最大 碰撞概率的影响因素,讨论了水平面内误差方差的耦合特性。对今年二月发生的美俄卫星碰 撞事件进行了分析,得到误差椭球任意形状时最大碰撞概率为1.864E-3。
     

Collision Probabilities for Keplerian Orbits

We present a new derivation of the probability of collisions between spherical satellites occupying Keplerian orbits. The equations follow from the central concept of the instantaneous collision rate, an expression that describes the occurrence of collisions by using a Dirac -function. The derivation proceeds by showing how this instantaneous collision rate can be averaged over orbital mean anomaly angles and, additionally, over orbital precession angles to generate expressions appropriate for intermediate and long time scales. Collision rates averaged over mean anomalies tend to be non-zero during relatively brief collision seasons, when the peak collision probability may exceed the long-term average by several orders of magnitude. Derived precession-angle averages have a functional form similar but not identical to the collision probability expression derived using the spatial density approach of Kessler (Icarus, 48: 39–48, 1981), and the two methods have been found to yield numerical results to within 1% for all cases examined.     

空间目标轨道信息软件平台的建设

空间目标轨道信息是空间态势感知的重要要素,是空间碰撞预警、空间碎片环境模型和许多空间应用的基础。因而,空间目标轨道确定成为空间态势感知的主要任务之一。文章介绍武汉大学测绘学院正在开发建设的空间目标轨道信息服务软件平台,该平台拥有的主要功能有:利用多源数据的卫星/空间碎片轨道确定(包括初轨确定)与预报、大气质量密度模型精化、空间碰撞预警和半解析法快速精密轨道传播等。文章还针对软件平台功能的研究进展进行了综述,介绍了软件平台发展规划。     

Developing a Low-Velocity Collision Model Based on the Nasa Standard Breakup Model

We have conducted a series of low-velocity impact experiments to understand the dispersion properties of fragments newly created by low-velocity impacts possible in space, especially in geostationary Earth orbit. The test results are utilized to establish a mathematical prediction model to be used in debris generation and propagation codes. Since the expected collision velocity between catalogued objects in geostationary Earth orbit shows a peak at a few hundreds meters per second, these impact experiments were conducted at a velocity range lower than 300m/s. As a typical structure of satellites in geostationary Earth orbit, thin aluminum honeycomb sandwich panels with carbon fiber reinforced plastics face sheets were prepared, while the projectile was a stainless steel ball of 9mm diameter. The data collected through these impact experiments have been re-analyzed based on the method used in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) standard breakup model 1998 revision. The results indicate that the NASA standard breakup model derived from hypervelocity impacts could be applied to low-velocity collision possible in geostationary Earth orbit with some modifications.     

Experimental investigation of fuel regression rate in a HTPB based lab-scale hybrid rocket motor

The fuel regression rate is an important parameter in the design process of the hybrid rocket motor. Additives in the solid fuel may have influences on the fuel regression rate, which will affect the internal ballistics of the motor. A series of firing experiments have been conducted on lab-scale hybrid rocket motors with 98% hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) oxidizer and hydroxyl terminated polybutadiene (HTPB) based fuels in this paper. An innovative fuel regression rate analysis method is established to diminish the errors caused by start and tailing stages in a short time firing test. The effects of the metal Mg, Al, aromatic hydrocarbon anthracene (C₁₄H₁₀), and carbon black (C) on the fuel regression rate are investigated. The fuel regression rate formulas of different fuel components are fitted according to the experiment data. The results indicate that the influence of C₁₄H₁₀ on the fuel regression rate of HTPB is not evident. However, the metal additives in the HTPB fuel can increase the fuel regression rate significantly.     

Design and development of correlation techniques to maintain a space surveillance system catalogue

A growing interest exists in a future, autonomous European Space Surveillance System (ESSS). Currently, most of the knowledge about Earth-orbiting space objects is based on information provided by the USASPACECOM. This paper presents the required initial orbit determination (IOD) and correlation techniques to process optical measurements. Former studies were focused on the handling of radar measurements, which are summarised with the aim of describing a global procedure for processing hybrid measurement types (combination of radar and optic data for catalogue maintenance). The introduction of manoeuvres are presented due to their importance in the space object catalogue maintenance.The detection of uncatalogued objects and the successful correlation of already catalogued objects involve two different tasks for telescopes: survey and tasking. Assumptions for both strategies are developed on the basis of the previous work developed at the University of Berne (see [T. Flohrer, T. Schildknecht, R. Musci, E. Stöveken, Performance estimation for GEO space surveillance, Advances in Space Research 35 (2005). [1]; T. Flohrer, T. Schildknecht, R. Musci, Proposed strategies for optical observations in a future European Space Surveillance Network, presented in the 36th COSPAR Scientific Assembly (2006). [2]; R. Musci, T. Schildknecht, M. Ploner, Orbit improvement for GEO objects using follow-up observations, Advances in Space Research 34 (2004). [3]; R. Musci, T. Schildknecht, M. Ploner, G. Beutler, Orbit improvement for GTO objects using follow-up observations, Advances in Space Research 35 (2005). [4]; R. Musci, T. Schildknecht, T. Flohrer, G. Beutler, Concept for a catalogue of space debris in GEO, Proceedings of the Fourth European Conference on Space Debris, (ESA SP-587, 2005). [5]]). When a new object appears in the field of view, initial orbit determination must be performed. When only one telescope per site is available, the initial measurements are separated by only a few seconds. Therefore, the initial orbit determination is quite inaccurate due to bad mathematical conditioning of the problem. In order to improve the accuracy of the initial orbit determination, several follow-up observations of the object are required. This implies that the telescope needs to track the detected objects over a long period, and therefore the time available for surveying is reduced. By processing the additional follow-up measurements, separated now by a few hours, the initial orbit determination gives more accurate results and the object can be recovered after an orbital revolution. When several telescopes per site are available, the optical strategies may be modified. The survey tasks can be distributed between the available telescopes. In this way the number of images corresponding to each object increases and to track the detected object over long periods is not always needed. Numerical results will be shown in order to evaluate the accuracy and features of the different telescope strategies. A key point for performing efficiently the cataloguing process is the calculation of the estimated state vector covariance matrix. The covariance matrix analysis allows an adaptive tasking-survey telescope scheduling. Moreover, the implementation of a proper batch orbit determination process by means of a square root information filter (SRIF) requires a realistic initial covariance matrix.Hybrid measurements are available from objects that can be observed through both radar and optical sensors (e.g. GTO objects). The batch orbit determination and correlation process of hybrid measurements is also based on SRIF using an extended measurement model. Both the initial orbit determination methods using radar and optical measurements have to be sufficiently accurate to initialise SRIF correctly. In order to avoid filter divergence, the estimated covariance must be correctly updated after processing both kinds of measurements. The implemented algorithms are explained and their performance is shown through realistic simulations.Techniques to detect and characterise object manoeuvres during the cataloguing process have been developed and implemented. Four main groups of manoeuvre objects have been established by means of their observed permitted orbital ranges (GEO, LEO, MEO–GPS, Molniya). The study is based on the historical TLEs files. When an object with an uncatalogued orbit appears, a comparison between the new orbit and the orbits contained in the permitted ranges of one of the manoeuvre groups is performed. If the required Δa and/or Δi to convert the lost orbit into the detected orbit seems to be feasible, a manoeuvre will be identified and the orbit will be updated in the catalogue. Otherwise, it will be decided that a new object was found. For this purpose, a procedure to estimate the manoeuvres and reset orbits have been developed.     

Influence of Space-Flight Factors on the Properties of Microorganisms, Producers of Biologically Active Substances

The following substances were isolated under the influence of space-flight factors in cosmic experiments aboard the Mirorbital station: an MIB-90 monoisolant, which is distinguished by its morphological and biochemical properties and enhanced productivity, was isolated from the Bacillus thuringiensis ssp. Kurstaki var. Z-52culture, which is a producer of the plant protection agent Lepidocide; and MIA-74 and MIP-89 monoisolants, which are highly active toward heavy petroleum fractions (C₂₃–C₃₃), were isolated from the Arthrobacter OC-1culture, which is a producer of biodegradants for petroleum.     

Space industry-10-year survey

Space Policy reprints here the Executive Summary of a report by Euroconsult: World Space Industry Survey: Ten Year Outlook, 1989/90 Edition. It summarizes worldwide trends in space activity as they appeared at the end of 1989 and analyses them in terms of their economic, financial and industrial aspects. The analyses are centred on the development of space applications and growth prospects in the corresponding markets for the upcoming 10-year period.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetospheric Disturbances, 1976–2000

Within the framework of the Space Weather program, 25-year data sets for solar X-ray observations, measurements of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the solar wind, and D _st index variations are analyzed to reveal the factors that have had the greatest influence on the development of magnetospheric storms. The correlation between solar flares and magnetic storms practically does not exceed a level of correlation for random processes. In particular, no relation was found between the importance of solar flares and the minimum of the D _st index for storms that could be connected with considered flares by their time delay. The coronal mass ejections (CME; data on these phenomena cover a small part of the interval) result in storms with D _st < –60 nT only in half of the cases. The most geoeffective interplanetary phenomena are the magnetic clouds (MC), which many believe to be interplanetary manifestations of CMEs, and compressions in the region of interaction of slow and fast streams in the solar wind (the so-called Corotating Interaction Region, CIR). They correspond to about two-thirds of all observed magnetic storms. For storms with –100 < D _st < –60 nT, the frequencies of storms from MC and CIR being approximately equal. For strong storms with D _st < – 100 nT, the fraction of storms from MC is considerably higher. The problems of reliable prediction of geomagnetic disturbances from observations of the Sun and conditions in interplanetary space are discussed.     

Space industry — 10-year survey

Space Policy reprints here the Executive Summary of a report by Euroconsult: World Space Industry Survey: Ten-Year Outlook. It summarizes worldwide trends in space activity as they appeared at the beginning of 1988 and analyses them in terms of their economic, financial and industrial aspects. The analyses are centred on the development of space applications and growth prospects in the corresponding markets for the upcoming 10-year period.     

System design and performance of the two-gyro science mode for the Hubble Space Telescope

For 15 years, the science mission of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) required using three of the six on-board rate gyros for attitude control. Failed gyros were eventually replaced through Space Shuttle Servicing Missions. To ensure the maximum science mission life, a two-gyro science (TGS) mode has been designed and implemented with performance comparable to three-gyro operations. The excellent performance has enabled a transition to operations with 2 gyros (by intentionally turning off a running gyro to save it for later use), and allows for an even greater science mission extension. Predictions show the gain in mission life approaching two years. In TGS mode, the rate information formerly provided by the third gyro is provided by another sensor. There are three submodes, each defined by the sensor used to provide the missing rate information (magnetometers, star trackers, and fine guidance sensors). Although each sensor has limitations, when used sequentially they provide the means to transition from relatively large, post-maneuver attitude errors of up to 10, to the arcsecond errors needed to transition to fine pointing required for science observing. Only small reductions in science productivity exist in TGS mode primarily due to more difficult target scheduling necessary to satisfy constraints imposed by the use of the star trackers. Scientists see no degradation in image quality due to the very low jitters levels that are nearly equivalent to three-gyro mode.     

Orientational versus esthetical urban street morphology parameterization in Space Syntax

Current topological and geometrical distances in Space Syntax are based on the premise that each change of direction along a path is a mental cost because one loses orientation. This paper proposes to extend the analysis to the case in which esthetic and variety, rather than orientation, are the key elements of street selection. It is widely recognized that most people are attracted to curvy paths rather than straight ones; therefore, when one is not worried about losing orientation in her walk, or when the preferred path is well recognizable even when it requires changes of direction, we should adopt another criterion to weigh distances: morphoahestetic and networkvariety criteria are shown as potential parameterization for Space Syntax distances.     

Effect of Microaccelerations on the Distribution of a Dopant in a Semiconductor Melt during Space Flight

The effect of residual microaccelerations on the distribution of a dopant in a semiconductor melt located in a heated closed cavity onboard an Earth-orbiting satellite is considered in the context of a model problem of thermal convection. The amplitude–frequency characteristics of the response of this distribution to the perturbing microaccelerations are obtained. It is demonstrated that the effect of low-frequency microaccelerations decreases when the frequency increases. A comparison is made of the macroscopic inhomogeneities of the dopant concentration due to the actual low-frequency (quasi-static) component of microaccelerations onboard different spacecraft: the orbital station Mir, the satellite Foton-11, a Space Shuttle orbiter, and the International Space Station. A substantial effect of the rotational motion of the spacecraft on the character of the time behavior of a macroscopic inhomogeneity is demonstrated.     

基于碰撞概率的交会对接近距离导引段的轨迹安全

提出了一种利用碰撞概率思想来描述交会对接近距离导引段飞行器轨迹安全的方法,这种方法采用最大瞬时碰撞概率来定量描述两个飞行器的碰撞危险程度。推导了最大瞬时碰撞概率的计算公式,其过程可分为三步:首先基于CW方程外推初始相对状态和误差协方差矩阵,然后利用外推后的相对状态和误差协方差矩阵计算瞬时碰撞概率,最后求出感兴趣区间内的最大瞬时碰撞概率。数值算例表明最大瞬时碰撞概率是描述交会对接近距离段两个飞行器碰撞危险程度的一个较好的指标。     

Ignition system for oxygen/hydrogen auxiliary propulsion systems

When the oxygen/hydrogen bipropellant combination was selected for use in the Space Shuttle Main Engine, it became apparent that many advantages may result if the Auxiliary Propulsion System Engines were to use the same propellants. A new ignition system, possessing a dramatically new level of reliability, durability and response, is required because the oxygen/hydrogen combination is not hypergolic and the projected missions will require a very large number of fast-response engine starts.The objective of this program was to obtain basic data for spark torch ignition methods at operating conditions typical of a Space Shuttle Orbiter Auxiliary Propulsion System. The research included ignition analysis and igniter design, fabrication and hot-fire test.Extensive testing of spark torch igniters was performed (chamber pressure, 206.8 N/cm², 300 psia, nominal) in the Igniter-Only and Igniter-Complete Thruster (thrust, 6672 N, 1500 lbF, nominal) operational modes. Reliable, repeatable ignitions were obtained with spark energies of 1–10 mJ. Hot-fire test results showed there is no effect of back pressure (1.013 × 10⁵ to 1.333 × 10^?2 N/m², 7.60 × 10² to 1 × 10^?4 mm Hg) or low temperature (O₂, 170 K, 306 R; H₂, 107 K, 193 R) on the response of the igniter or the ignition delay of the thruster over the ranges tested. Igniter durability and pulse capability were demonstrated with 150 sec of continuous operation and 1000 consecutive pulses, respectively. Durability was further demonstrated with a series of 2500 Igniter-Complete Thruster ignitions at nominal chamber pressure. No limiting variables were encountered. The hot-fire test results showed the spark torch igniter is capable of meeting fully the typical Space Shuttle Orbiter Auxiliary Propulsion System mission requirements.     

微重力环境模拟作业训练机器人碰撞力反馈控制

针对航天员在地球表面进行微重力环境中操作训练时微重力环境模拟作业训练机器人存在的碰撞力反馈控制问题,建立碰撞力反馈模型、提出单个柔索驱动单元控制策略和机器人系统碰撞力反馈控制策略。利用Matlab/Simulink软件对碰撞力反馈模型和控制策略进行仿真验证,该模型和控制策略可以实现机器人碰撞力反馈,且具有计算量小、实时性好、不需要额外增加传感器等优势;结合提出的柔索驱动单元复合控制策略和机器人系统碰撞力反馈控制策略进行机器人碰撞力反馈控制实验,提高机器人控制的准确性和实时性。结果表明,基于干扰观测器的柔索驱动单元复合控制策略将柔索驱动单元主动控制精度提升11%,被动控制多余力消除率达到81.82%;机器人碰撞力反馈控制策略可以有效提升航天员作业训练时碰撞力临场感体验。     

A Concept of Guidance for an Air-Launch Vehicle with Compensation of Initial Downrange and Launch Time Errors at Direct Insertion into a Rendezvous Point in the Orbit

A flying launcher (airplane carrier) can generate initial errors in position and time of launch. In order to compensate for these errors, one should have two control parameters in addition to those that provide for a spacecraft's injection into a preset orbit. We suggest the concept of controlling the trajectory of injection by choosing thrust values (within allowable regions of control) of second-stage engines or/and of a space booster of the Polyot carrier launcher. As an example, a rendezvous of the spacecraft at the end of its boost phase with the International Space Station (ISS) is considered. The methodology of the suggested approach can be extended to other mobile systems of launch to rendezvous orbits.     

Orbit prediction and shuttle rendezvous strategy for eureca

The European Retrievable Carrier (EURECA) is a platform to be launched, deployed and retrieved in low Earth orbit by the Space Shuttle.A newly developed analytical orbit prediction method is described which meets the severe requirements for EURECA's orbit propagation. It is based on an averaging procedure including the Earth's zonal harmonics J₂, J₃ and J₄ and a refined treatment of the air drag perturbation where EURECA's large solar panels are taken into account. Some orbit prediction results are included.In order to offer more flexibility for the Shuttle retrieval of EURECA, it is proposed to execute a part of the rendezvous manoeuvres by EURECA. A corresponding strategy is described.