What is the optimum solar proxy for long-term ionospheric investigations?

The problem of optimum solar proxy is important for long-term and/or climatological studies of ionospheric parameters. Here we focus on possibly different optimum solar proxies for different ionospheric parameters, as they are affected by partly different spectral ranges of solar ionizing radiation. We use yearly average values of foF2 and foE of four European stations with long (1976–2014) and high-quality data (Juliusruh, Pruhonice, Rome, Slough/Chilton), and the global total electron content (G-TEC). Four solar proxies are used: F10.7, Mg II, solar Lymna-alpha flux Fα and sunspot numbers. The most important finding is that the optimum solar proxies are different for different ionospheric parameters. The most suitable solar proxy for foF2 is found to be Mg II, whereas for foE F10.7 evidently outperforms Mg II. Fα and sunspot numbers perform slightly worse but none of four solar proxies performs poorly. F10.7 is favored for G-TEC, to some extent surprisingly, as previous results favored rather Mg II.     

What are the physical mechanisms of eruptions and CMEs?

CMEs are due to physical phenomena that drive both, eruptions and flares in active regions. Eruptions/CMEs must be driven from initially force-free current-carrying magnetic field. Twisted flux ropes, sigmoids, current lanes and pattern in photospheric current maps show a clear evidence of currents parallel to the magnetic field. Eruptions occur starting from equilibria which have reached some instability threshold. Revisiting several data sets of CME observations we identified different mechanisms leading to this unstable state from a force free field. Boundary motions related to magnetic flux emergence and shearing favor the increase of coronal currents leading to the large flares of November 2003. On the other hand, we demonstrated by numerical simulations that magnetic flux emergence is not a sufficient condition for eruptions. Filament eruptions are interpreted either by a torus instability for an event occurring during the minimum of solar activity either by the diffusion of the magnetic flux reducing the tension of the restraining arcade. We concluded that CME models (tether cutting, break out, loss of equilibrium models) are based on these basic mechanisms for the onset of CMEs.     

Stability of relative equilibria of the full spacecraft dynamics around an asteroid with orbit–attitude coupling

The full dynamics of spacecraft around an asteroid, in which the spacecraft is considered as a rigid body and the gravitational orbit–attitude coupling is taken into account, is of great value and interest in the precise theories of the motion. The spectral stability of the classical relative equilibria of the full spacecraft dynamics around an asteroid is studied with the method of geometric mechanics. The stability conditions are given explicitly based on the characteristic equation of the linear system matrix. It is found that the linearized system decouples into two entirely independent subsystems, which correspond to the motions within and outside the equatorial plane of the asteroid respectively. The system parameters are divided into three groups that describe the traditional stationary orbit stability, the significance of the orbit–attitude coupling and the mass distribution of the spacecraft respectively. The spectral stability of the relative equilibria is investigated numerically with respect to the three groups of system parameters. The relations between the full spacecraft dynamics and the traditional spacecraft dynamics, as well as the effect of the orbit–attitude coupling, are assessed. We find that when the orbit–attitude coupling is strong, the mass distribution of the spacecraft dominates the stability of the relative equilibria; whereas when the orbit–attitude coupling is weak, both the mass distribution and the traditional stationary orbit stability have significant effects on the stability. We also give a criterion to determine whether the orbit–attitude coupling needs to be considered.     

Where is the base of the Transition Region? Evidence from TRACE,SDO, IRIS and ALMA observations

Classic solar atmospheric models put the Chromosphere-Corona Transition Region (CCTR) at  Mm above the level, whereas radiative MHD (rMHD) models place the CCTR in a wider range of heights. However, observational verification is scarce. In this work we review and discuss recent results from various instruments and spectral domains. In SDO and TRACE images spicules appear in emission in the 1600, 1700 and 304 Å bands and in absorption in the EUV bands; the latter is due to photo-ionization of H i and He i, which increases with wavelength. At the shortest available AIA wavelength and taking into account that the photospheric limb is  Mm above the level, we found that CCTR emission starts at  Mm; extrapolating to , where there is no chromospheric absorption, we deduced a height of  Mm, which is above the value of 2.14 Mm of the Avrett and Loeser model. Another indicator of the extent of the chromosphere is the height of the network structures. Height differences produce a limbward shift of features with respect to the position of their counterparts in magnetograms. Using this approach, we measured heights of  Mm (at 1700 Å),  Mm (at 1600 Å) and  Mm (at 304 Å) for the center of the solar disk. A previously reported possible solar cycle variation is not confirmed. A third indicator is the position of the limb in the UV, where IRIS observations of the Mg ii triplet lines show that they extend up to  Mm above the 2832 Å limb, while AIA/SDO images give a limb height of  Mm (1600 Å) and  Mm (304 Å). Finally, ALMA mm- full-disk images provide useful diagnostics, though not very accurate, due to their relatively low resolution; values of  Mm at 1.26 mm and  Mm at 3 mm were obtained. Putting everything together, we conclude that the average chromosphere extends higher than homogeneous models predict, but within the range of rMHD models..     

Assessment of improvement of the IRI model over Ethiopia for the modeling of the variability of TEC during the period 2013–2016

This paper discusses the monthly and seasonal variation of the total electron content (TEC) and the improvement of performance of the IRI model in estimating TEC over Ethiopia during the solar maximum (2013–2016) phase employing as reference the GPS derived TEC data inferred from four GPS receivers installed in different regions of Ethiopia; Assosa (geog 10.05°N, 34.55°E, Geom. 7.01°N), Ambo (8.97°N, 37.86°E, Geom. 5.42°N), Nazret (8.57°N, 39.29°E, Geom. 4.81°N) and Arba Minch (6.06°N, 37.56°E, Geom. 2.62°N). The results reveal that, in the years 2013–2016, the highest peak GPS-derived diurnal VTEC is observed in the March equinox in 2015 over Arba Minch station. Moreover, both the arithmetic mean GPS-derived and modelled VTEC values, generally, show maximum and minimum values in the equinoctial and June solstice months, respectively in 2014–2015. However, in 2013, the minimum and maximum arithmetic mean GPS-derived values are observed in the March equinox and December solstice, respectively. The results also show that, even though overestimation of the modelled VTEC has been observed on most of the hours, all versions of the model are generally good to estimate both the monthly and seasonal diurnal hourly VTEC values, especially in the early morning hours (00:00–03:00?UT or 03:00–06:00?LT). However, it has also been shown that the IRI 2007 and IRI 2012 versions generally perform best in matching the diurnal GPS derived TEC values as compared to that of the IRI 2016 version. In addition, the IRI 2012 version with IRI2001 option for the topside electron density shows the highest overestimation of the VTEC as compared to the other options. None of the versions of the IRI model are proved to be able to capture the effects of geomagnetic storms.     

Is the heliospheric interface submagnetosonic? Consequences for the LISM presence in the heliosphere

Based on our best knowledge of the physical parameters of the LISM, one comes to the conclusion that for the solar system a submagnetosonic configuration of the plasma interface between the LISM and the expanding solar wind plasma is established extending to some 1000 AU distance upwind from the sun. In this region with perturbed interstellar plasma conditions the LISM neutral flow directed towards the inner part of the heliosphere is substantially modulated due to charge exchange interaction processes with the ionized LISM component. Flow velocities, temperatures and densities showing up at the border of the inner solar system can thus not be taken as parameters characterizing the LISM conditions. This interface effect is highly variable for different LISM plasma conditions. The range of the most probable LISM parameters to be expected within this physical scenario is discussed.     

How far is far enough? Requirements derivation for planetary mobility systems

The origination of duration and distance requirements on planetary mobility systems (generally, rovers) are reviewed in detail. It is found that a ‘clean’ flow down from scientific objectives to requirement to capability is rarely presented. Rather, the historical record shows that the capability of emerging designs has been adopted post-hoc as a requirement, simple comparative superiority to predecessor missions has been invoked in competitive situations, or the requirement has been driven by capability of other elements of a mission architecture, such as delivery precision or astronaut life support. These deviations from the idealized systems engineering process have nonetheless resulted in missions that have generally been considered highly successful.     

Is the poleward edge of the trough a sensitive indicator of geospace interactions?

The poleward edge of the main ionospheric trough can often be regarded as the ionospheric signature of the equatorward boundary of the plasma sheet. We use Advanced Ionospheric Sounder observations of the poleward edge from Halley, Antarctica (76°S, 27°W; L=4.2) to investigate some aspects of its dynamics with respect to changes of magnetospheric and solar wind conditions. We find that there is frequently rapid equatorward motion of the poleward edge from ∼20 minutes before to ∼30 minutes after the onset of the main phase of a substorm. These observations are discussed in terms of the dynamics of the plasma sheet during substorm activity. Another class of rapid equatorward motion of the poleward edge of the trough has no apparent cause in the magnetosphere or solar wind. Possible explanations involving longitudinal structure of the trough or small-scale structure of the solar wind are considered.     

Is the phenology-based algorithm for mapping deciduous rubber plantations applicable in an emerging region of northern Laos?

Updated information of rubber plantations is essential for assessing socioeconomic and environmental impacts, especially in the emerging region of northern tropics. Here, a phenological method was modified to detect rubber plantations using Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery in Phongsaly Province of northern Laos, where it begun a rubber boom in the mid-2000s due to geo-economic cooperation. It highlighted the landscape and pixel differences of deciduous rubber plantations in the tri-temporal phases (i.e., pre-defoliation, defoliation, and foliation) during the dry season due to phenological changes. Six commonly used vegetation indices (VIs), including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Land Surface Water Index (LSWI), Atmospherically Resistant Vegetation Index (ARVI), Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR and NBR2) derived from OLI imagery during 2013–2016 were compared to determine the most suitable VI for discriminating the phenological differences of rubber plantations from natural forests. Then, the Differences of Normalized Burn Ratio (DNBR) was applied to generate the 30 m map of rubber plantations in 2016, by combining two masks of Landsat-derived forest and suitable elevation for rubber trees cultivation. The resultant map of rubber plantations had a classification accuracy of 93.7% and the Kappa coefficient of 0.848. Our study demonstrated the usefulness of the Landsat-derived tri-temporal phenological DNBR approach in an emerging region of northern Laos, despite requiring more scenes compared with single- and double temporal window methods.     

Saturn kilometric radiation as a monitor for the solar wind?

Since the Voyager mission it is known that Saturn Kilometric Radiation (SKR) is strongly influenced by external forces, i.e., the solar wind and in particular the solar wind ram pressure. Recent studies using Cassini data essentially confirmed these findings for particular periods during the first Cassini orbit of Saturn. The data coverage of SKR by the Cassini/RPWS experiment for the period of six months prior to Saturn Orbit Insertion (July 1, 2004) is rather continuous, whereas there are gaps in the solar wind plasma data. The strong correlation of SKR with the solar wind may provide an indication on the variations of the solar wind plasma, specifically during the gap periods. These periods lacking solar wind data are substituted by Ulysses solar wind data which have been propagated over ∼4 AU, applying magnetohydrodynamic propagation models. Cross correlation studies showed that Ulysses solar wind data can be taken as a substitute for missing Cassini data. The use of SKR as monitor for solar wind variations is discussed. With the present set of observations the SKR proxy lacks significant reliability.     

How the astronomical aspects of climate science were settled? On the Milankovitch and Bacsák anniversaries,with lessons for today

It was 100 years ago (on August 7, 1920), that the comprehensive mathematical foundations of climate change research, written by a Serbian researcher, Milutin Milankovitch, were published. A later interpreter and developer of his results, Georg (in Hungarian: György) Bacsák (Pozsony/Pressburg/Bratislava, June 5, 1870 - Fonyód, March 4, 1970) was born 150 years ago and died at the age of one hundred, half a century ago. In this commemorative paper we look back to special circumstances in revealing the secrets of ice ages that had puzzled scientists for at least several centuries. Recently, after 100 years, the Milankovitch theory, including related short-term forcings (ranging from interannual, multidecadal to millennial timescales) has not only been confirmed, but its climate forcing mechanism has also been identified and proposed. Owing to the uniqueness of the problem, the science of the orbital forcing of climate change can be proclaimed to be essentially settled.     

Is the Earth’s orbital motion linked to the spin rotation of the Sun?

Time variations of the magnetic field of the Sun, seen as a star (the data 1968–2018, with more than 27 thousand daily measurements of the solar mean magnetic field), allowed to specify the rotation period of the gravitating solar mass: 27.027(6)?days, synodic. This indicates a presumably unknown physical connection between motions of the Sun and the Earth: in the course of a year our star accomplishes nearly 27 half-revolutions, while the planet itself performs an identical number of its spinnings during one complete axial revolution of the Sun. True origin of this strange Sun–Earth resonance is unknown, but it is supposed the phenomenon might be caused by slight coherent perturbations of gravity within the solar system.     

New field of application of the IRI modeling – Determination of ionosphere transfer characteristic for radio astronomical signals

We suggest a new field of application of IRI modeling – determination of ionosphere transfer characteristic (ITC) for radio astronomical signals (RAS). VHF and HF RAS are widely used for observations of the Sun and pulsars. It is necessary to take into account possible distortions of RAS in the Earth ionosphere. However, in contrast to modern navigation systems (GPS, GLONASS, GALILEO), where very accurate reconstruction of ionosphere parameters is a built-in function, in present-day radio astronomy a retrieve of ITC has not been appropriately worked out yet. It collides with increasing requirements to accuracy of the analysis of RAS amplitude profile and to the angular and polarizing resolution of radio telescopes of new generation. We have developed a method and software for calculation of the ionosphere measure of rotation (RM) and the measure of dispersion (DM). We used the ionosphere model IRI-2001, magnetic-field model IGRF-10 and values of ionosphere total electron content as deduced from GPS measurements. The obtained values of the ionosphere DM and RM were recalculated into characteristics of phase delay, Faraday amplitude modulation and polarization changes. We made calculations for different levels of geomagnetic activity and for different angular position of radio sources as well.     

Input Parameters for Models of Energetic Electrons Fluxes at the Geostationary Orbit

The results of cross-correlation analysis between electrons fluxes (with energies of > 0.6MeV, > 2.0 MeV and > 4.0MeV), geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are shown in the paper. It is determined that the electron fluxes are controlled not only by the geomagnetic indices, but also by the solar wind parameters, and the solar wind velocity demonstrates the best relation with the electron fluxes. Numerical value of the relation efficiency of external parameters with the highly energetic electrons fluxes shows a periodicity. It is presented here the preliminary results of daily averaged electrons fluxes forecast for a day ahead on the basis of the model of neuron networks.     

Why should the latitude of the observer be considered when modeling gradual proton events? An insight using the concept of cobpoint

The shape of flux profiles of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events depends on several not well-understood factors, such as the strength of the associated shock, the relative position of the observer in space with respect to the traveling shock, the existence of a background seed particle population, the interplanetary conditions for particle transport, as well as the particle energy. Here, we focus on two of these factors: the influence of the shock strength and the relative position of the observer. We performed a 3D simulation of the propagation of a coronal/interplanetary CME-driven shock in the framework of ideal MHD modeling. We analyze the passage of this shock by nine spacecraft located at ∼0.4 AU (Mercury’s orbit) and at different longitudes and latitudes. We study the evolution of the plasma conditions in the shock front region magnetically connected to each spacecraft, that is the region of the shock front scanned by the “cobpoint” (Heras et al., 1995), as the shock propagates away from the Sun. Particularly, we discuss the influence of the latitude of the observer on the injection rate of shock-accelerated particles and, hence, on the resulting proton flux profiles to be detected by each spacecraft.     

How do interplanetary shock impact angles control the size of the geoeffective magnetosphere?

In this paper, we investigate temporal and spatial magnetosphere response to the impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks with different inclinations and speeds on the Earth’s magnetosphere. A data set with more than 500 IP shocks is used to identify positive sudden impulse (SI⁺) events as expressed by the SuperMAG partial ring current index. The SI⁺ rise time (RT), defined as the time interval between compression onset and maximum SI⁺ signature, is obtained for each event. We use RT and a model suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002) to calculate the geoeffective magnetospheric distance (GMD) in the shock propagation direction as a function of shock impact angle and speed for each event. GMD is a generalization of the geoeffective magnetosphere length (GML) suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002), defined from the subsolar point along the X line toward the tail. We estimate statistical GMD and GML values which are then reported for the first time. We also show that, similarly to well-known results for RT, the highest correlation coefficient for the GMD and impact angle is found for shocks with high speeds and small impact angles, and the faster and more frontal the shock, the smaller the GMD. This result indicates that the magnetospheric response depends heavily on shock impact angle. With these results, we argue that the prediction and forecasting of space weather events, such as those caused by coronal mass ejections, will not be accurately accomplished if the disturbances’ angles of impact are not considered as an important parameter within model and observation scheme capabilities.     

Study on the system of night hours for decoding Korean astronomical records of 1625–1787

This paper presents a study of the dates and times of astrophysical phenomena seen in the night time hours in Korea between 1625 and 1787. This is a period when two different calendars were used and it is important to know which calendar was used to record events such as lunar eclipses. It is known that the Joseon court adopted Shixianli (a Chinese calendar of Adam Schall) in 1654, the fifth reign of King Hyojong. However, the year when the court introduced the calendar into the system of night hours has not yet been determined. To know the enforcement year is very important for studies on astronomical events that are presented in Korean historical documents. From Seungjeongwon Ilgi (Daily Records of the Royal Secretariat), we compile a total of 90 lunar eclipse records referring to the observation time of the eclipses and calculate the times of occurrence of the eclipses with respect to the calendrical methods: Chiljeongsan Naepyeon (a Korean calendar) and Shixianli. As a result, we find that the system of night hours by the former calendrical method was used in the Joseon dynasty until as late as 1710. We also verify that the times of sunrise and sunset were considered as the moments when the center of the Sun reached the horizon according to Chiljeongsan Naepyeon at least. Therefore, we think that this study will contribute to the studies on astronomical phenomena of the Joseon dynasty, particularly on the estimate of the observation time.     

Time variations of the total electron content in the Southeast Asian equatorial ionization anomaly for the period 2006–2011

This study presents the time variations of the total electron content in the South East Asian equatorial ionization anomaly. The time variation of the TEC is analyzed through the period 2006–2011 by using a latitudinal chain of GPS stations extending in the northern and southern hemisphere. The data shows that the shape of the diurnal variation of the TEC depends on the latitude: a plateau is observed at the stations near the equator and a Gaussian at the station distant from the equator. We observe a semiannual pattern in all the stations with maxima at equinox. In both hemispheres, the amplitude of the crest is larger in spring than autumn from 2006 to 2008 and smaller in spring than in autumn from 2009 to 2011. We also observe an asymmetry between the amplitude and the position of the two crests of ionization. There is a very high level of correlation between the amplitude of the TEC at the two crests and the sunspot number: ∼0.88. During the deep solar minimum 2008–2009, the amplitude of crests of ionization becomes small during several months in summer and winter. The results show that both crests move significantly equatorward in winter than other seasons and there is a tendency for both crests to appear earlier in winter and later in summer.     

Which solar EUV indices are best for reconstructing the solar EUV irradiance?

The solar EUV irradiance is of key importance for space weather. Most of the time, however, surrogate quantities such as EUV indices have to be used by lack of continuous and spectrally resolved measurements of the irradiance. The ability of such proxies to reproduce the irradiance from different solar atmospheric layers is usually investigated by comparing patterns of temporal correlations. We consider instead a statistical approach. The TIMED/SEE experiment, which has been continuously operating since February 2002, allows for the first time to compare in a statistical manner the EUV spectral irradiance to five EUV proxies: the sunspot number, the f10.7, Ca K, and Mg II indices, and the He I equivalent width.     

Where does the heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays start?

The long outstanding question of where the heliospheric (solar) modulation of galactic cosmic rays actually begins, in terms of spatial position, as well as at what high kinetic energy, can now be answered. Both answers are possible by using the results of an advanced numerical model, together with appropriate observations. Voyager 1 has been exploring the outskirts of the heliosphere and is presently entering what can be called the very local interstellar medium. It has been generally expected, and accepted, that once the heliopause is crossed, the local interstellar spectrum (LIS) should be measured in situ by the Voyager spacecraft. However, we show that this may not be the case and that modulation effects on galactic cosmic rays can persist well beyond the heliopause. For example, proton observations at 100 MeV close to the heliopause can be lower by ∼$\sim$25% to 40% than the LIS, depending on solar modulation conditions. It is also illustrated quantitatively that significant solar modulation diminishes above ∼$\sim$50 GeV at Earth. It is found that cosmic ray observations above this energy contain less that 5%$5\%$ solar modulation effects and should therefore reflect the LIS for galactic cosmic rays. Input spectra, in other words the very LIS, for solar modulation models are now constrained by in situ observations and can therefore not any longer be treated arbitrarily. It is also possible for the first time to determine the lower limit of the very LIS from a few MeV/nuc to very high energies.