US government policy - the major factor shaping the international commercial space launch marketplace

In this Viewpoint — an edited version of a statement made to the US House Committee on Science's Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics' hearing on ‘US launch strategy’ — the President of Arianespace, Inc analyses the overriding importance of US government policies and executive decisions on the shaping and behavior of the international market in commercial space launch services. Chief among these is the overruling of commercial imperatives by foreign policy and national security interests and the consequent regular intervention of the US government in launch decisions. The ability of Arianespace successfully to compete in a market severely distorted as a result of these interventions, including the encouragement of joint ventures between US and Russian or Ukrainian companies, is explained.     

Lessons learned from Mir--a payload perspective

Among the principal objectives of the Phase 1 NASA/Mir program were for the United States to gain experience working with an international partner, to gain working experience in long-duration space flight, and to gain working experience in planning for and executing research on a long-duration space platform. The Phase 1 program was to provide the US early experience prior to the construction and operation of the International Space Station (Phase 2 and 3). While it can be argued that Mir and ISS are different platforms and that programmatically Phase 1 and ISS are organized differently, it is also clear that many aspects of operating a long-duration research program are platform independent. This can be demonstrated by a review of lessons learned from Skylab, a US space station program of the mid-1970s, many of which were again “learned” on Mir and are being “learned” on ISS. Among these are optimum crew training strategies, on-orbit crew operations, ground support, medical operations and crew psychological support, and safety certification processes.     

Change and continuity in US space policy

2010 saw both the unveiling of a new US National Space Policy and the announcement of a fundamentally different strategy for US human spaceflight that would move from the NASA-government-led Apollo-style approach to a greater reliance on the private sector and international cooperation. This viewpoint puts forward arguments on why change in the US approach to human spaceflight is needed, while acknowledging that achieving it in the face of vested interests and threats to jobs and livelihoods is extremely difficult. It suggests that greater US recognition of the need to ensure the sustainability of space activity (by addressing debris, radio-frequency interference and potential deliberate disruption of spacecraft), and an apparent willingness to countenance international norms to govern space activities, could be the new policy’s most lasting heritage.     

Stepping stones to the future: Achieving a sustainable lunar outpost

The current emphasis in the US and internationally on lunar robotic missions is generally viewed as a precursor to possible future human missions to the Moon. As initially framed, the implementation of high level policies such as the US Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) might have been limited to either human lunar sortie missions, or to the testing at the Moon of concepts-of-operations and systems for eventual human missions to Mars [White House, Vision for Space Exploration, Washington, DC, 14 January, 2004. [1]]. However, recently announced (December 2006) US goals go much further: these plans now place at the center of future US—and perhaps international—human spaceflight activities a long-term commitment to an outpost on the Moon.Based on available documents, a human lunar outpost could be emplaced as early as the 2020–2025 timeframe, and would involve numerous novel systems, new technologies and unique operations requirements. As such, substantial investments in research and development (R&D) will be necessary prior to, during, and following the deployment of such an outpost. It seems possible that such an outpost will be an international endeavor, not just the undertaking of a single country—and the US has actively courted partners in the VSE. However, critical questions remain concerning an international lunar outpost. What might such an outpost accomplish? To what extent will “sustainability” be built into the outpost? And, most importantly, what will be the outpost's life cycle cost (LCC)?This paper will explore these issues with a view toward informing key policy and program decisions that must be made during the next several years. The paper will (1) describe a high-level analytical model of a modest lunar outpost, (2) examine (using this model) the parametric characteristics of the outpost in terms of the three critical questions indicated above, and (3) present rough estimates of the relationships of outpost goals and “sustainability” to LCC. The paper will also consider possible outpost requirements for near-term investments in enabling research in light of experiences in past advanced technology programs.     

The military in space : A historical relationship

The Deputy Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff offers some observations on the ‘militarization’ of space, arguing that military involvement does not necessarily mean an environment will become ‘weaponized’. He also comments on some future US space activities.     

Remote sensing and the first amendment

The images and information available from remote-sensing satellites are potentially valuable to a large market. The news media is part of this market, ready to make major use of new near real-time information offered by the latest technology, which can provide images with resolution of less than 10 metres. A media business consortium (‘Mediasat’) could be created. However, the US Land Remote Sensing Commercialization Act of 1984 places tough licensing restrictions on any US company wanting to put a camera into orbit. The author argues that these restrictions clash with the US Constitutional right of freedom of information, and the press's right to gather information.     

China's rise in space and US policy responses: A collision course?

China's opaque politics present particular difficulties for US space policy. Heavily invested in and reliant on space, the US will closely monitor China's burgeoning space program. New space powers, and the increasing use of space generally will further create significant challenges, most particularly to the reliance of states on space for national security. In order to maintain its space capabilities, the US will have to decide between securing this via multilateral and co-operative uses of space, or through trying to maintain a level of dominance over other space actors. While very gradually shifting away from the latter position, Washington's policy choices are complicated by the lack of a clear Chinese space strategy. While the Chinese space program, and its wider intentions, are opaque, tenure of a more cooperative approach course might prove fragile.     

The US–Europe technology gap in space transportation: the view from the USA

This paper examines the debate within the USA over how to meet the perceived competition from the successful European Ariane launcher and the loss of US market share for space launch services that it represented. In particular, it explores the origins of the 1983 Reagan Administration policy to turn over expendable launch vehicle production and operation to private industry. The Administration's other decisions to: (1) use the Space Shuttle to fly all government payloads, and (2) allow NASA to market Space Shuttle services commercially, conflicted with this commercialization policy. These policies effectively caused US industry to delay entry into the international competition for launch services until after the loss of the Space Shuttle Challenger in January 1986.     

Thoracic sonography for pneumothorax: the clinical evaluation of an operational space medicine spin-off

The recent interest in the use of ultrasound (US) to detect pneumothoraces after acute trauma in North America was initially driven by an operational space medicine concern. Astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) are at risk for pneumothoraces, and US is the only potential medical imaging available. Pneumothoraces are common following trauma, and are a preventable cause of death, as most are treatable with relatively simple interventions. While pneumothoraces are optimally diagnosed clinically, they are more often inapparent even on supine chest radiographs (CXR) with recent series reporting a greater than 50% rate of occult pneumothoraces. In the course of basic scientific investigations in a conventional and parabolic flight laboratory, investigators familiarized themselves with the sonographic features of both pneumothoraces and normal pulmonary ventilation. By examining the visceral–parietal pleural interface (VPPI) with US, investigators became confident in diagnosing pneumothoraces. This knowledge was subsequently translated into practice at an American and a Canadian trauma center. The sonographic examination was found to be more accurate and sensitive than CXR (US 96% and 100% versus US 74% and 36%) in specific circumstances. Initial studies have also suggested that detecting the US features of pleural pulmonary ventilation in the left lung field may offer the ability to exclude serious endotracheal tube malpositions such as right mainstem and esophageal intubations. Applied thoracic US is an example of a clinically useful space medicine spin-off that is improving health care on earth.     

Intuitive ultrasonography for autonomous medical care in limited-resource environments

Management of health problems in limited resource environments, including spaceflight, faces challenges in both available equipment and personnel. The medical support for spaceflight outside Low Earth Orbit is still being defined; ultrasound (US) imaging is a candidate since trials on the International Space Station (ISS) prove that this highly informative modality performs very well in spaceflight. Considering existing estimates, authors find that US could be useful in most potential medical problems, as a powerful factor to mitigate risks and protect mission. Using outcome-oriented approach, an intuitive and adaptive US image catalog is being developed that can couple with just-in-time training methods already in use, to allow non-expert crew to autonomously acquire and interpret US data for research or diagnosis.The first objective of this work is to summarize the experience in providing imaging expertise from a central location in real time, enabling data collection by a minimally trained operator onsite. In previous investigations, just-in-time training was combined with real-time expert guidance to allow non-physician astronauts to perform over 80 h of complex US examinations on ISS, including abdominal, cardiovascular, ocular, musculoskeletal, dental/sinus, and thoracic exams. The analysis of these events shows that non-physician crew-members, after minimal training, can perform complex, quality US examinations. These training and guidance methods were also adapted for terrestrial use in professional sporting venues, the Olympic Games, and for austere locations including Mt. Everest.The second objective is to introduce a new imaging support system under development that is based on a digital catalog of existing sample images, complete with image recognition and acquisition logic and technique, and interactive multimedia reference tools, to guide and support autonomous acquisition, and possibly interpretation, of images without real-time link with a human expert. In other words, we are attempting to replace, to the extent possible, expert guidance by guidance from a digital information resource. This is a next logical phase of the authors’ sustained effort to make US imaging available to sites lacking proper expertise. This effort will benefit NASA as the agency plans to develop future human exploration programs requiring increased medical autonomy. The new system will be readily adaptable to terrestrial medicine including emergency, rural, and military applications.     

Choosing partners for a manned mission to Mars

Who are the best partners for a US manned mission to Mars? Arguments have been made for a joint US-Soviet manned mission which would improve relations between the superpowers and prevent the weaponization of space. However, from the viewpoint of the US space advocate, the issue is which is the most expeditious way to get humans to Mars. Let's go to Mars, the author argues, but with allies and friends rather than the USA's primary competitor on Earth.     

US export controls and Canadian autonomy to collaborate on international space missions

Canada is a space power with unique technical niches that support opportunities for collaboration on space technologies. When U.S.-origin space technologies are involved Canada's ability to collaborate internationally may be conditional on US law and policy. As a result, US export control law can be directly linked to the success or failure of Canadian collaboration. This article examines the strategic impact of U.S. export controls on Canadian autonomy to collaborate on international missions, including multi-use missions. Canadian space export control policy is also examined more broadly with the goal of providing specific policy recommendations that will enhance Canada's future as an international space actor.     

Scientific literacy and attitudes towards American space exploration among college undergraduates

One hundred fifty-five college undergraduates from Syracuse University were surveyed to assess the relationship between their scientific literacy and attitudes to US space exploration. The students were divided into four sections based on majors: basic sciences (n = 41), health sciences (n = 29), political science (n = 36) and other (n = 49). As a whole the students had high scientific knowledge and overall support for human space exploration. There was a significant correlation (rho = 0.33, P < 0.01) between the dependent variables, suggesting that those with the highest scientific literacy looked more favorably upon US space exploration. When evaluated by college major, significant correlations were evident for political science and health science majors only (P < 0.05). There were no differences in scientific literacy scores between males and females and among the various college majors (P > 0.05). Attitudes towards US space exploration varied by sex only, indicating that males were more supportive than females (P < 0.05). These data suggest that individuals with adequate scientific literacy tend to look more favorably upon space exploration. Further research should be done to assess these factors in other populations, as well as to develop strategies to improve scientific literacy and shape positive attitudes towards space exploration in the US population.     

United States space policy and international partnership

Has the current US space policy improved the USA's overall strategic position? Does it affect favorably international partnerships? These questions are examined in terms of security, political economy, and influence. In today's context, where there are more space players, more options, more potential for unintended consequences, and higher stakes, unilateral action is more limited in its effectiveness than in earlier times. Surveying current US space policy, it is not clear that data-driven, analytically based decisions are being made to affect positively national independence, innovation, market creation, and international perceptions of the USA as a trustworthy partner. More promising are the steps taken to bolster a predictable space operational environment and economic competitiveness. Ultimately, in order to achieve American excellence and leadership, a ‘closed loop’ on the policy system is needed, to gauge regularly and systematically whether the US is achieving the desired national outcomes.     

Arms control and disarmament in space: the rough road to Vienna 1984: Part I

This article examines the international legal and diplomatic questions relating to arms control and disarmament, focusing on space-based activities. These relate importantly to the development of anti-satellite satellites (ASATs) and ballistic missile defence systems (BMDs). Part I of the article examines the goal of ‘peaceful uses’ of outer space as elaborated in national policies and in international fora, the debate that has has taken place at the international level over the meaning and definition of peaceful purposes, legal manoeuvres, particularly in the UN, and US responses, and recent Soviet initiatives relating to space militarization. Part II will appear in the next issue, and will consider the US Presidential-Congressional dialogue on these questions and recent Presidential initiatives.     

The NASA programme in the 1990s and beyond

This article is an edited summary of a report on the future work of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration published in May 1988 by the US Congress's Congressional Budget Office. It considers whether NASA will be able to undertake new and ambitious initiatives in the coming decades, or instead hold its spending to current real levels, thus limiting US international leadership in space activities.     

US and Soviet ballistic missile defence programmes : Implications for the 1972 ABM treaty

This article reviews the key provisions of the ABM Treaty and the major issues of interpretation which need to be resolved. The various phases of the US Strategic Defense Initiative are discussed, showing that permitted SDI research may cross over the prohibited development and testing beginning in 1988. Cooperative research with US allies is discussed in terms of the Treaty constraints. US and Soviet ballistic missile defence programmes are summarized and the major US and Soviet compliance issues, including the Krasnoyarsk radar, are reviewed. The author argues that limitations on defensive systems remain a precondition to limitations on offensive systems. The ABM Treaty should be enhanced by agreed interpretations, a separate ASAT treaty, and perhaps four amendments to the ABM Treaty.     

Towards a coherent remote sensing data policy

Access to space-based remote sensing data is critical for Earth science and the study of global change. This article summarizes a variety of US government Earth science data policies and problems. The authors examine current efforts to develop data policies for the next generation of US remote sensing programmes, noting likely problems based on past experiences. They argue that the goal of US Earth science data policy should be to provide the widest possible dissemination of data. Setting such a goal permits the development of a simple, coherent data policy that serves scientific, commercial and US government interests.     

美国导弹防御系统发展及对国际军控影响研究

大力推进导弹防御系统(MD)的研制和部署是美谋求绝对优势的重要举措。系统分析了美国导弹防御系统(BMDS)发展的基本态势和未来走向,以及其对国际军备控制的影响。     

Searching for lost fragments in GEO

This paper attempts to search the lost fragments from the near-synchronous US TitanIIIC transtage explosion of February 21, 1992, known as the second major fragmentation of a TitanIIIC transtage. This breakup was accidentally observed by the Maui GEODSS sensor, and then a total of 23 objects were reported from the breakup, no orbital data on any fragments has been generated by the SSN. In order to evaluate the debris cloud orbital evolution, we demonstrate the actual US TitanIIIC transtage explosion by using breakup model and orbit propagator. The perturbing accelerations, considered in this analysis are the non-spherical part of the Earth's gravitational attraction, the gravitational attraction due to the Sun and Moon, and the solar radiation pressure effects. Finally, we will present a search strategy based on distribution of the right ascension of the ascending node about the catalogued objects and the debris particles from the US TitanIIIC transtage explosion.