| 太阳E10.7指数的反演及预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 雷蕾,钟秋珍,王晶晶,师立勤,苗娟.太阳E10.7指数的反演及预报方法[J].空间科学学报,2022,42(6):1060-1067. |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷蕾 钟秋珍 王晶晶 师立勤 苗娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院国家空间科学中心 北京 100190 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对高层大气密度预报和轨道预报业务中对新型太阳紫外辐射指数E10.7的需求，基于TIMED-SEE观测仪器提供的0.1～105 nm太阳辐射强度数据，开展了E10.7指数反演和中期预报研究。 E10.7指数是太阳光谱中波长为0.1～105 nm的辐射流量，单位与F10.7指数相同（sfu，1 sfu=10–22 W·m–2·Hz–1）。 TIMED-SEE观测仪器提供的0.1～105 nm太阳辐射强度实测值具有高时间分辨率、延迟时间短和易获得的优势，利用最小二乘法拟合可反演出准实时的E10.7指数，均方根误差为5.445 sfu。利用高阶自回归模型对E10.7的中期预报效果尚佳，未来27天的预报值平均相对误差为7.83%。利用同样方法还开展了E10.7指数81天中心滑动平均值未来27天预报试验，未来27天的预报值平均相对误差仅为3.63%。
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| 关 键 词： | E10.7指数 自回归模型 中期预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-10-25 |
Autoregressive Prediction Method of E10.7 Index |
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| Affiliation: | 1.National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1001902.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 |
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| Abstract: | In response to the demand for the new solar ultraviolet radiation index E10.7 in the operation of upper atmospheric density prediction and orbit prediction, this paper carries out the research on E10.7 index inversion and medium-term prediction based on the integrated solar irradiance from 0.1 to 105 nm provided by TIMED-SEE instrument. The E10.7 index is the radiation flux in the solar spectrum at wavelengths from 0.1 to 105 nm in the same unit as the F10.7 index (sfu, 1 sfu = 10–22 W·m–2·Hz–1). The integrated solar irradiance from 0.1 to 105 nm provided by the TIMED-SEE instrument has the advantages of high time resolution, short delay time, and easy availability. The quasi-real-time E10.7 can be retrieved by least square fitting, and the root mean square error is 5.445 sfu. The average relative error of the next 27 days prediction is 7.83% using the autoregressive model. Using the same method, the 27 days prediction test of the 81-day central moving average of E10.7 is also carried out. The average relative error of the next 27-day predictions of the 81-day central moving average of E10.7 is 3.63%. |
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